Maybe I should make that James D. Ogsbury of Scottsdale, the first Republican to officially seek the opportunity to challenge Rep. Harry Mitchell, D-Tempe, in 2008. As Tribune political reporter Paul Giblin mentioned Friday at his blog, "Checking In," Ogsbury launched his congressional campaign over the weekend. Ogsbury wants us to focus on his experience in Washington as the best reason he should represent Congressional District 5. His staff position on a House energy subcommittee in the mid-1990s does lend some credence to his claim. His contacts through his subsequent lobbying career make it likely he can raise some cash for a serious run. But Ogsbury’s biggest challenge simply will be to make some positive connections with Republican voters in District 5.Lawyers and lobbyists (Ogsbury is both) are far less popular right now than when other politicians such as Jon Kyl first ran for Congress. One conservative blogger at the Sonoran Alliance already has pointed out that Ogsbury has donated in the past to Democrat candidates, raising questions about his Republican credentials. In fact, campaign reports show Ogsbury has donated primarily to congressional incumbents of both parties, which is the name of the game in lobbying circles.Meanwhile, Ogsbury’s Washington work has largely been in the trenches for Salt River Project and cities such as Mesa and Chandler, bringing him no name recognition that might ring a bell or two with the average voter.That’s going to be serious problem as a variety of better known Republicans are seriously looking at jumping in. They include Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert, Arizona Corporation Commissioner Jeff Hatch-Miller and former state Rep. Laura Knaperek, R-Tempe, according to various party insiders and other media accounts.J.D. Hayworth has said several times on his radio show he’s not interested in trying to reclaim the seat from Mitchell. And congressional incumbents are generally considered to be the most vulnerable at the end of their first term. So, just about any Republican politician from Scottsdale to Ahwatukee Foothills who has a burning desire to be in Congress is at least considering a bid. Otherwise, they might have to wait a decade or more for their next legitimate chance.Republican activists say they are optimistic about picking a candidate who can defeat Mitchell. But I think it’s fair to say that they aren’t as confident as they want to be. Next year is a presidential election, and a tough fight for the Democratic nomination is expected to motivate Democrat voters rather than discourage them. Mitchell’s own lengthy political career makes him virtually unbeatable in his hometown. So the Republican challenger will have to do well in other parts of the district with higher GOP voter registration including Scottsdale, Paradise Valley and Ahwatukee. A high voter turnout in November 2008 (which a presidential election usually brings) will mean more independent voters who ignore party labels and focus on candidate personalities.That’s a potential opportunity for Ogsbury, as he starts his campaign pretty much with a blank slate. We’ll see if he can take advantage of his earlier start to control how his image is presented, or if his opponents do a better job once they enter the race.
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