Mitt Romney (left) and John McCain

Listen to the pundits talking in the so-called Mainstream Media this weekend, and it sounds like Sen. John McCain practically has claimed the Republican nomination for president, and the Super Tuesday primaries are just to make it official.

But if you listen to the various right-wing radio talk shows and read through various Republican-leaning blogs, you’ll notice a rather strong backlash against McCain ever since his Florida win turned the remaining contest largely into a two-man race with Mitt Romney. For good summaries of this, check out Fox News’ Bill O’Reilly from Friday; and Jim Nintzel at Salon.com. The Washington Post looks at the issue from the angle of conservative Republicans in Arizona who don’t like McCain.

The conventional wisdom is national polls show McCain opening up a lead over Romney. But national polls are worthless. Convention delegates are won state by state. Romney has the lead or is close in several states. Mike Huckabee might steal a southern state or two.

More importantly, this primary season has been filled with twists and surprises. So I won’t be surprised at all if Romney actually picks up some momentum on Super Tuesday and McCain has to pick himself up again to keep going.

Bob Lord 

Republican supporters of Rep. John Shadegg, R-Ariz., have been trying to dismiss the challenge of Democrat Bob Lord as another misguided bid doomed to fail as GOP voters rise up to easily re-elected the seven-term congressman.

But Shadegg has to be at least a little nervous as Lord continues to collect huge amounts of money for his campaign. Hefty Democrat donors, at least, suspect Shadegg is vulnerable in Congressional District 3, which covers much of north Phoenix, western Scottsdale, Cave Creek and Carefree.

Lord announced Friday he raised more than $612,000 in 2007, and still has $503,000 in cash to spend. And Lord is getting better at his fundraising, bringing in $211,000 for the last three months of 2007, or 50 percent more than for the previous quarter.

Shadegg isn’t exactly hurting, as he has raised a little more than $1 million and still has $863,000 to spend. But Lord appears likely to keep pace, erasing one big advantage that protected Shadegg in the past.

I must admit the first time I heard that Bob Lord would be a Democratic candidate, I thought he had a chance to threaten Shadegg just because of his name. “Bob Lord” is short, evocative and memorable. It stands out on campaign signs. People will remember it, even those who pay little attention to ballot issues until just before election day.

Lord can worry less about promoting his name identification (the first hurdle for any new candidate) and focus more on contrasting his positions with Shadegg’s record.

But in the end, I think the Republican dominance in District 3 and the lack of any scandal for Shadegg significantly diminish Lord’s chances of actually winning in November.

You can look at a summary of FEC reports for Congressional District 3 here, but Lord’s numbers might not be updated yet.