Tuesday was the deadline for candidates for federal, state and county offices (Maricopa, Pinal) to submit their voter signatures and qualify for the September primary ballots. Petition challengers have nine days left to file their court cases in an attempt to get individual candidates knocked off the ballot; it’s a little political dance Arizona does every two years in June.

   So, assuming none of these candidates disappear from the list sometime in the next two weeks, here are some of my thoughts about what should be the most interesting legislative races affecting the East Valley.

Congress, House of Representatives, District 1

   There’s a collection of candidates from both parties seeking to replace Rep. Rick Renzi, who’s not running for re-election because of a federal criminal indictment on money laundering and corrupt influence charges. But it appears Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick of Flagstaff and Republican Sydney Hay of Munds Park (sort of Flagstaff) will emerge to face off in the November general election. Hay is the only prominent Republican in the group and narrowly lost the primary to Renzi during his first bid for this district that covers most of the northern half of Arizona. Kirkpatrick, who resigned her state House seat to run, has started to pick up endorsements from reliably Democratic interest groups. Democrats hold the voter registration advantage in this district, but it only has been represented by the Republican Renzi since it came into existence in 2002.

District 5
   This is the election race I expect East Valley voters will hear about the most this the summer and fall. We have six Republicans vying for the chance to try and dethrone freshman Rep. Harry Mitchell, a Tempe Democratic. Five of those Republicans have prominent political backgrounds.

   Not that it matters. Republicans have a voter registration edge in District 5, but I have trouble believing any of them can overcome Mitchell’s political status, which is anchored by decades of teaching high school political science. It seems like every week I run into another former Mitchell student, and they all vote for him regardless of their party registration.

District 6

   Republicans hold a 2-1 edge over Democrats in this district, and even independents tend to break for the GOP here. So it’s a surprise that Democrats will have a competitive primary between Chris Gramazio of Queen Creek and Rebecca Schneider of Mesa. Incumbent Jeff Flake also will have a Republican primary opponent in Scott Bergren of Chandler. There’s even a Libertarian, Rick Biondi of Chandler.

   Keep in mind that state Rep. Russell Pearce, R-Mesa, who would have had a far stronger advantage in this district than any of the challengers, decided earlier this year that Flake couldn’t be defeated and is running for the state Senate instead.

Arizona Legislature, District 17

   With no primary competition, Republican Jesse Hernandez of Tempe will try yet again to unseat incumbent Democrat Meg Burton Cahill, also of Tempe. But Democrats now have a slight voter edge in this district and independent voters, which make up 28 percent of the total registration, tend to break for Democrats as well. That’s why this district’s legislative delegation has swung from all Republicans to all Democrats in the past decade.

District 18

   A big shuffle going on here in this west Mesa district that leans heavily Republican, as Sen. Karen Johnson steps down and Rep. Mark Anderson campaigns for Congress. Most people assume Russell Pearce is a shoo-in to replace Johnson in the Senate. But he did struggle some in the House race two years ago. Pearce faces fellow Republican Kevin Gibbons in the primary, and the winner must defeat Democrat Judah Nativio to win the seat.  On the House side, look for a little free-for-all with two open seats and the most prominent name belonging to the sole Democrat, Tammie Pursley, who campaigned for the Legislature in 2006.

District 20

   This district covering Ahwatukee Foothills, south Tempe and west Chandler always has attracted lots of candidates since it was created in 2002. The same is true this year with Democrat Ted Maisch of Chandler trying to knock off incumbent Sen. John Huppenthal, R-Chandler, who never has lost an election.

   But I think the interesting team to watch will be Democrats Jim Torgeson and Rae Waters. Torgeson really wants to get to the Legislature after his battles with a couple of East Valley cities over his sign-walking business. Waters is looking to step up from her seat on the board of the Kyrene Elementary School District. Expect them to make a credible challenge for the House seat left open by the departure of Rep. Bob Robson, R-Chandler. (Incumbent Rep. John McComish, R-Ahwatukee, is running again).

   On the Republican side, airline pilot and former Air Force officer Frank Schumck of Chandler has been the most visible campaigner so far. But Andy Swann of Tempe recently retired from a lengthy career with the Arizona Department of Public Safety, the type of training that sways many Republican voters.

District 22

   By far, this district will feature the most fascinating East Valley legislative primary with Rep. Eddie Farnsworth, R-Gilbert, challenging incumbent Sen. Thayer Verschoor. As the Senate Republican floor leader, Verschoor has discovered partisan principles sometimes conflict with leadership’s task of getting legislation adopted. This is especially true when the governor is from the other party. Farnsworth will hit Verschoor hard wherever the senator has strayed from strict conservative policies. I wonder if Verschoor will hit back by pointing out that when Farnsworth held a similar post in House leadership, these principles essentially were run over by a handful of Republicans who united with Democrats to adopt a budget over Farnsworth’s heated objections.

  Spoiling a classic one-on-one showdown, Joe Bedgood of Gilbert also has jumped in the Republican primary. Bedgood is counting on picking up Republicans and independents not happy with legislative brinkmanship by both lawmakers. But my guess is he will just steal votes from Farnsworth as a fellow challenger.

  The Senate race opens up one House seat and three Republicans are competing for the chance to be Rep. Andy Biggs’ running mate.

District 23

   This is another district that has attracted lots of legislative candidates in recent years, prompted by the rapid growth in the Pinal County Republican Party as a byproduct of population growth. The biggest change is who isn’t running, Rep. Pete Rios, a fixture in the Legislature for most of the past 25 years. His daughter, Sen. Rebecca Rios, D-Apache Junction, will be back if she can fend off newcomer Republican Andr Campos of Arizona City.

   But on House side, fellow incumbent Rep. Barbara McGuire, D-Kearny, will be mixing it up with three other Democrats including former Rep. Ernest Bustamante of Mammoth. Meanwhile, the two Republican challengers from 2006, Frank Pratt of Case Grande and John Fillmore of Apache Junction, will be back in the general election for a rematch.

Posted in: Arizona Legislature • Congress • Election issues |

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