My last blog post was about various congressional and legislative races that East Valley voters will have to consider in the coming months. Here’s my thoughts about a few other races around Arizona that you might hear about but won’t directly affect most Tribune readers.

U.S. House of Representatives, District 2
   I haven’t seen or read anything that makes me think incumbent Rep. Trent Franks, a Glendale Republican, is in any danger of losing this election.

District 3
   The first moment I heard that Bob Lord was campaigning for Congress, I knew the Democrat had at least an outside shot at defeating Republican incumbent John Shadegg. The convention wisdom is that Shadegg should win easily in a district where Republicans enjoy a 50,000-person lead in voter registration. Shadegg never has been seriously challenged since he was elected in 1994.
   But Lord has the perfect name for an upset. It’s easy to remember, looks great on campaign signs and every God-fearing Republican is taught from birth to admire and respect the word (as well as Democrats, independents and anyone else of the Christian faith).
   With national Democrats expecting a tsunami wave of voter support this November, fundraisers have targeted Arizona’s District 3 as a good place to invest. Shadegg didn’t help his campaign with a decision to retire that lasted for about two weeks before he reversed course to seek re-election.
   However, if anyone can hold out against a Democratic sweep across the country, it’s Shadegg. He’s viewed as a principled conservative who is able to work effectively with different factions within the Republican Party. He has no real scandals to explain. And he hasn’t lost his telegenic personality, which is matched or exceeded only by Jeff Flake among his Arizona Republican colleagues.
   Republicans convinced Shadegg to run again so their fortunes don’t look quite so grim in Washington. Democrats are hoping for a repeat of 2006 in Arizona’s District 5, where Democrat Harry Mitchell surprised Beltway types by sending J.D. Hayworth on to a career in Valley talk radio.

District 4
   We don’t hear or read much about Democratic Rep. Ed Pastor, who happens to be the senior member of Arizona’s entire House delegation and wields plenty of influence in Washington and in his hometown of Phoenix. That keeps the cash flowing to his campaign coffers and forces serious potential challengers to look at other offices instead.
   But there’s always someone willing to tilt at windmills in Arizona’s capital city. This year, Republican Don Karg, Libertarian Joe Cobb and Green Party candidate Rebecca DeWitt will make for a full ballot in this district in November.

District 7
   Rep. Raul Grijalva, a Tucson Democrat, is perhaps the most popular politician in southern Arizona, even more so than Gov. Janet Napolitano. A couple of never-been Republicans will compete in the September primary. But look for Grijalva to spend most of his time and money helping Barack Obama and other Democratic candidates, as he doesn’t have to worry about his own re-election.

District 8
   This is the biggest race in southern Arizona this year. Freshman congressmen are considered the most vulnerable, and Democratic Rep. Gabrielle Giffords has known since she won this open seat in 2006 that Republicans would be targeting her in this election. State Senate President Tim Bee decided he would be the Republican candidate even before Giffords had taken her oath of office.
  Bee has done most things right so far to position himself in a district where Republicans have a slight voter registration advantage. He cleared the field to avoid any primary competition and he has been lining up donors to keep pace with Giffords’ effective fundraising.
   But history hasn’t been kind to sitting Senate presidents who seek other offices. And the never-ending legislative session is a lead-weight on Bee’s campaign. Every time he’s away from the Capitol to raise money, Democrats complain loudly he’s not doing the job that voters elected him to do.
   Finally, Bee must swim against the Democratic tide that many people see washing up to swamp Republicans in November’s congressional races.

Arizona Legislature, District 1
   Sen. Tom O’Halleran, R-Sedona, is widely viewed by GOP activists as a RINO (Republican-In-Name-Only). He certainly has been a thorn in the side of his party’s leadership thorough his legislative career. But O’Halleran keeps getting re-elected, which implies this district’s voters care more about his ideas and positions than what other Republican politicians think of him.
   Still, some activists remain convinced a “true” Republican should be able to run O’Halleran out of office in this GOP-heavy district. Steve Pierce of Prescott will try to prove them right in the September primary.

District 3
   American voters have an inconsistent belief in redemption, depending on the seriousness of a politician’s offense and how recently it occurred. Incumbent Rep. Trish Groe, R-Lake Havasu City, hopes the voters in her western Arizona district are quite forgiving. Groe was arrested and later convicted for her second DUI last year as she drove home from Phoenix. She missed 30 days of the session while she was treated for alcohol addiction, but her colleagues have been more supportive than condemning.

District 10*

   Former Rep. Doug Quelland, R-Phoenix, was forced out in 2006 by a three-way battle for two seats in the general election with House Speaker Jim Weiers, R-Phoenix, and Democrat Jackie Thasher of Glendale. Quelland essentially blamed Weiers for the loss because Weiers campaigned on his own in the final weeks of that election when they were supposed to be working as a team.
   Quelland is back this year. If Thrasher makes it out of the Democratic primary where she has some competition, it will be interesting to see how she deals with Weiers and Quelland this time.

District 12**
   The Senate seat in this West Valley district is open, and other political observers say this traditional Republican area is gradually shifting to the Democrats. But state Rep. John Nelson, R-Litchfield Park, a former Phoenix City Councilman, still has to be considered the favorite over Democrat Angela Cotera of Avondale. Democrats have to win here to have any change of taking away the overall Republican majority in the state Senate.
  

District 26
   Democrat Charlene Pesquiera didn’t really expect to win the Senate seat in this traditionally Republican district north of Tucson. So she decided to not seek a second term. That opens the door for Republicans to potentially build on their 17-15 lead in the Senate. Republican Al Melvin lost to Pesquiera and is back this year, but he has to defeat experienced state Rep. Pete Hershberger in the September primary. Melvin is a clear fiscal and social conservative, while Hershberger is business-friendly but liberal on cultural issues. The winner will face Democrat Cheryl Cage, who ran Rep. Lena Saradnik’s successful campaign in the same district two years ago.

District 30
   A Democrat in Green Valley is almost as lonely as one in east Mesa. But that party managed to find a candidate in Georgette Valle from the upscale senior retirement community for the open Senate seat in this district.
   Still, most people I know already are giving the nod in this race to Rep. Jonathon Paton, R-Tucson. He’s a relentless campaigner who tries to call 10 constituents every single day. The only time that he significantly strayed from that task was when he volunteered to serve in Iraq as an officer in Army Reserve.

*This additional comment on District 10 corrects the original post which referred to Quelland, Weiers and Thrasher under District 12. I also corrected these comments to reflect that Quelland and Weiers don’t have any competition in the Republican primary.

**This section has corrected from the original post to remove an inaccurate reference to the House races.

Posted in: Arizona Legislature • Arizona government • Congress • Election issues |

You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.