My recent review of some key congressional and legislative races and a follow-up a day later was a hit with at least a few readers. A couple of people asked me to write about other legislative races that I didn’t get to before. So without further ado:
Arizona Legislature
District 5
This would have been a pretty quiet race, as I had expected all three incumbents to win re-election. But the death of Sen. Jake Flake, R-Snowflake, came just days after the deadline for candidates to qualify for the September primary ballot. Today, the Navajo County Board of Supervisors appointed Sylvia Allen Tenney, R-Snowflake, to fill out Flake’s term this year, according to the Associated Press.
Tenney had been making at least her second bid for a House seat against Reps. Bill Konopnicki, R-Safford and Jack Brown, D-St. Johns. But she and Konopnicki now are asking Republican Party officials to put their names on the Senate primary ballot to replace Flake, who had no challengers. The party could choose one, both or someone else altogether. The party also would fill any open spots on the House primary ballot. And write-in candidates also potentially could play a role now, although such candidates would need some serious campaign funds to have the faintest hope of competing.
Update: Tenney was selected Saturday by Republican Party precinct officers to replace Flake on the party ballot, the Associated Press reported. With no other listed challengers, Tenney is essentially guaranteed to continue with a full two-year term. Konopnicki will remain a House candidate, and now doesn’t have to run much of a campaign this year as they are only two candidates for House seats — the two incumbents.
District 6
Rep. Doug Clark, R-Phoenix, isn’t seeking re-election. That gives Republican Carl Seel of Phoenix perhaps his best chance yet of finally winning an elected office. The staunch social conservative has run unsuccessfully several times in the past decade for both the Legislature and the Arizona Corporation Committee. Seel has been loyal to GOP leadership and a good worker in the trenches, but hasn’t found the right fit with voters. Seel is not a shoe-in as incumbent Sam Crump and challenger Tony Bouie of Anthem are also in the Republican primary, and there’s a pair of Democrats who will be hoping for an upset in the general election.
District 8
Tribune writer Dennis Welch originally reported on the biggest news here – Sen. Carolyn Allen, R-Scottsdale, will be unchallenged for her last term in the Senate. Once considered a Republican power player, Allen has alienated certain GOP factions because a social libertarian streak had led her to vote against further limits on abortions and to not want to mess with the Constitution by banning gay marriage (As a House member, she voted in favor of the state law that does the same thing and so far has been upheld).
While I see her as a budget conservative (she was one of the few to oppose the StudentsFirst school construction plan that isn’t working very well), she doesn’t support slash-and-burn tactics offer by some Republican colleagues, especially when arts funding or environmental issues are involved. This means Republican legislative leadership can’t assume Allen will be a “yes” vote on any GOP-only budget.
So some Republican activists have tried to drive Allen off, but they failed. It’s pretty hard to politically run over someone who’s so well-connected in Scottsdale and was at death’s door six years ago but came back pretty strong for her age (70).
On the House side, Democrat Stephanie Rimmer continues to try to practice what she once preached. When Rimmer was a publicist for the private Clean Elections Institute, she argued taxpayer funding for campaigns enables candidates to overcome entrenched local politics and ideologies and reach out directly to voters.
Rimmer certainly faces some entrenchment in this Republican-dominated district. This is Rimmer’s second attempt to win a House seat. We’ll see if she fairs any better than she did in 2006 against incumbents Michele Reagan, R-Scottsdale, and John Kavanagh, R-Fountain Hills.
District 11
The House race here is hard to predict. This is supposed to be a Republican-heavy district centered on Paradise Valley, but Rep. Mark DeSimone, D-Phoenix, grabbed a House seat with lots of support from chamber of commerce types in 2006. DeSimone is by himself on the D side of the primary, so all of his energy (and funding) will go into the general election. The other House member, Adam Driggs, R-Phoenix, will be teamed up with newcomer Jon Altmann in an attempt to restore the political order of things.
On the Senate side, no one can outcampaign or raise more funds than Barbara Leff, (she just whips up on publicly funded candidates with her private resources) and I don’t see a Democrat rally posing any serious threat to this Republican.
District 12
House incumbent Jerry Weiers, R-Glendale, and Sen. Robert Blendu, R-Litchfield Park (who is moving over to the House because of term limits) should be easy winners, at least in theory. But I hear Republican challenger Steve Montenegro of Litchfield Park has some real support in this West Valley district, and a rising number of Democrats and independents might give Eve Nunez, D-Glendale, a chance to take a seat in the general election. However, there’s no way both Weiers and Blendu are defeated.
Twitter