Gov. Janet Napolitano hands out what’s left in the state budget (original photo at www.governor.state.az.us).

   Most of this week I’ve focused on what the Legislature is or isn’t doing (mostly isn’t) to adopt a state budget by the July 1 deadline. While the presence of Gov. Janet Napolitano certainly looms, the responsibility of this task falls squarely on the shoulders of lawmakers from both parties. They will have no one but themselves to blame if a significant portion of state government must be shut down in nine days for a lack of funding.
   But Napolitano is making the Legislature’s task harder by continuing to push for pie-in-sky spending ideas when the budget deficit just keeps getting bigger.
   Each week, Napolitano sends out a promotional email to people who have signed up through her official Web site. This week, Napolitano’s message was devoted to reviving a proposal from the three state universities to borrow $1.4 billion for construction. About one-third of the spending would be for critical building maintenance. But the rest would be for new research facilities and medical buildings.
   The Tribune Editorial Board noted on April 26 that it would be a real bad idea for the Legislature to gamble that the economy will turn around fast enough for the state to make debt payments on the university plan starting in 2010. That editorial was written when the budget shortfall was projected at $1.8 billion or less. Now, it’s predicted to be up to $2.2 billion and is only likely to grow.
   Tax revenues keep going down and Napolitano really thinks now is the time to add more spending to the pile?
   My guess is Napolitano thinks she is laying ground work for horse trading with the Legislature when budget talks start moving again. But what she’s really doing is adding to the delay by refusing to take anything off the table, leaving lawmakers to fumble around and guess at what can be done to avoid budget vetoes.
   The governor could help the Legislature by directly acknowledging that new spending wishes can’t possibly be fulfilled in the current climate, no matter who requested them.

LAURA KNAPEREK (left) AND HER DEMOCRATIC STALKER (Knaperek campaign photo)

   Tribune writer Gary Grado has reported this afternoon on a new low in Arizona politics – the partisan candidate stalker.
  The state Democratic Party has hired someone named David to follow and videotape every step of Laura Knaperek, a Republican candidate for the East Valley’s Congressional District 5. David showed up outside a Paradise Valley home Wednesday where Knaperek was holding a private fundraiser, apparently hoping to catch someone like Jack Abramoff or Charles Keating going inside.
   David deserves credit for being honest about who he was and what he was doing. And Knaperek has been classy in how she handled the situation, by offering David some relief from the sweltering heat and sending out a light-hearted news release about it today.
   But Knaperek told me she finds the whole situation a little creepy and I have to agree. Do Democratic Party officials really think they are going to find out something relevant by stalking Republican candidates even at private homes, do they hope to intimidate the opposition, or a little bit of both?
   I’m aware that journalists have been known to hang outside private fundraisers, but usually that’s because a very special donor is expected to drop by (like the president or Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger) or the candidate has been unavailable for comment. We don’t normally linger in private neighborhoods trying to identify every donor to walk through the door.
   One other thought, just how much money does the state Democratic Party have to spend this year that it can hire someone to stalk a congressional candidate widely considered to be an underdog in a really crowded Republican primary? The answer to that question might be just as nerve-racking for Republicans across the state.

HOUSE DEMOCRATIC FLOOR LEADER PHIL LOPES

   It’s Friday, you didn’t expect the Legislature would do any work today, did you? It’s not like they have anything that really needs to get finished…
   Actually, Rep. Phil Lopes, the House Minority Leader, told local NPR affiliate KJZZ for a news story broadcast this morning that Democrats asked for a break until Monday so they could study the latest proposal from Republican negotiators to resolve a predicted $2.2 billion budget shortfall when the new fiscal year starts July 1.
   As Lopes described it, the Republicans haven’t offered an actual budget – you know, something with lots of columns and numbers and the bottom line hopefully balances out instead of being filled with red ink. Instead, this is a list of principles or budget concepts that Republicans want Democrats to accept before they get down to the part where they put budget numbers to paper and start compromising.
   At this rate, Arizona will have a new budget sometime after the state centennial in 2012.
   This list of principles sort of fits into the Republican leadership’s not-so-successful strategy of failing to come up with a solution but blaming the minority Democrats and Gov. Janet Napolitano for all of their problems. Sure, the Democrats have buried their head in the sand about the scope of the cuts necessary to get out of this crisis. But Republicans haven’t offered a true black-and-white alternative for months.
   The only thing available is a list of up to $1.5 billion in cuts offered by Rep. Russell Pearce, R-Mesa, and Sen. Bob Burns, R-Peoria. I understand that list slashes so deeply into K-12 education, the state universities and the Department of Economic Security that Napolitano never would sign it – even if Republicans could somehow guarantee she would become vice president in January.
   More importantly, the Pearce/Burns plan can’t get enough votes from the Republican majority, which is why GOP leadership hasn’t offered it to move negotiations into high gear.
   What isn’t clear is if there’s any budget proposal that a majority of Republicans would support. So far, Senate President Tim Bee and House Speaker Jim Weiers are refusing to rely on the unified Democrats to get a budget done, which is what happened last year when the budget was adopted on June 26.
   And so the countdown continues with 10 days left until July 1…

REP. MICHELE REAGAN
   The news is mixed from the Arizona Legislature as the July 1 deadline to adopt a state budget inches another day closer.
   The Legislature actually met today; the first time that lawmakers have put in a four-day work week in June. Well, the House did some work anyway. The Senate basically met on the floor this morning so members could say “hi” to each other before leaving the Capitol for a three-day weekend.
   The House give the final approval to a four-bill package intended to spur further reforms at Child Protective Services. Pushed all session long by Reps. Kirk Adams, R-Mesa, and Jonathon Paton, R-Tucson, the bills focus on forcing CPS to be more open and transparent, holding up its operations to the light of public scrutiny.
   Adams and Paton might disagree, but I think the most sweeping measure is HB2159, which says disciplinary records of state employees are presumed to be public records and open to inspection unless another law says otherwise. While not perfect, the bill would overrule an administrative rule that has kept secret employee records for tens of thousands of state workers, when their colleagues in county, city and school governments have long been available for review. The same voters and residents pay the salaries of those state employees and we should be able to see the records that explain how they are representing us.
   We’ll know in a few days if Gov. Janet Napolitano supports the public receiving this information and the other bills in the CPS reform package.
   Along with the good comes this bit of bad news, the House has found a new way to distract lawmakers from what should be their primary job of passing a state budget. Rep. Michele Reagan, R-Scottsdale, held a special meeting of the House Commerce Committee to explain her plans for a “economic jobs package,” to include new tax credits for solar equipment manufacturing and industrial research; allowing cities to waive construction sales taxes for certain types of real estate development; and permitting Pima County to have an election next year about adopting some tourism taxes to fund new baseball stadiums.
   Reagan is moving ahead this late in the legislative session with the permission of House Speaker Jim Weiers, R-Phoenix. Weiers told the committee he believes the package has the potential to create “tens of thousands of new jobs and hundreds of millions in tax dollars,” which would help ease the state budget problems in a year or two.
   “Either we can be sitting around in the backroom wringing our hands and say ‘woe is me’ or we can be pro-active and look at where we want to be,” Weiers told the committee.
   The problem is this type of stimulus package distorts free markets and is fundamentally unfair because the Legislature would lavish special benefits on favorite or “hot” industries and, through neglect, punish those businesses that aren’t as popular or happen to be in the wrong location. If tax credits and waiving sales taxes can boost the economy, then every business should get these benefits, not a select few that hire the right lobbyists or use the most powerful buzz words.
   Besides, putting this kind of package together on June 19 instead of in March or April is a political maneuver to keep the rank-and-file lawmakers interested and optimistic while legislative leaders sit in the backroom wringing their hands over a budget they can’t finish.
   Meanwhile, the Senate Appropriations Committee has scheduled a hearing for Wednesday next week, where it could consider a strike-everything amendment for an emergency budget. Committee chairman Bob Burns said yesterday in a hearing he’s looking at a measure that would keep critical functions of state government funded for 30 days.

Gov. Janet Napolitano, left, and Capitol Media Services’ Howard Fischer (original photo at cronkite.asu.edu)

   Gov. Janet Napolitano has a secret plan to keep essential state services in operation if she and the Legislature can’t agree on a new state budget within the next 12 days.
I call Napolitano’s plan secret because, as Capitol Media Services reported today, the governor says she has a strategy but she won’t discuss where she gets the legal authority or how she will fund it without a state budget.
   If you’ve been following this countdown, you know the state constitution requires the adoption of a state budget by July 1 every year. But Napolitano and state lawmakers still have not come together, and no one knows what will happen if July 1 goes by and no budget deal is inked. Some people are predicting a real nightmare because the state’s largest and most important agencies won’t have permission to spend any money, and even if they did, there would be no one at the state Treasurer’s office or the Department of Administration to write the checks.
   But Napolitano believes she can avert a total government shutdown, and she’s ready to keep the prison guards, state troopers and other key state employees on the job. Perhaps by July 1, she might even explain to the public how she expects to pull that off.
   Meanwhile, Capitol Media Services also reported Sen. Bob Burns, R-Peoria and chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, is writing bills for a temporary one-month budget — just in case. But Burns is promising a bare-bones approach that funds only “critical” services, which means tens of thousands of state employees still would be temporarily laid off and agencies not covered would be out of business for up to 30 days. The biggest agency most likely to feel the pinch would be the state Department of Education, which hands out the funding for all public K-12 schools. This will be a real crisis for those districts, such as Chandler Unified, that usually start school in early August.
   Burns thinks a stripped-down temporary budget would put enormous pressure on lawmakers and Napolitano to finally find a way to erase a predicted $2.2 billion shortfall in the state General Fund for the next fiscal year.

   As promised, the Arizona Senate and House appropriations committees met jointly today to hear what happens if a new state budget isn’t adopted by June 30. The answer: a total nightmare.
   Richard Stavneak, the legislator’s top budget expert, said most state agencies actually have two-year budgets in place and, in theory, they could keep operating past July 1 even if lawmakers haven’t resolved an estimated $2.2 billion budget shortfall. There are only a few agencies operating on budgets that end June 30: including the ones that house 38,000 prison inmates, provide health insurance to more than 1.1 million people, oversee funding for 1.1 million school children, as well as those agencies that provide public safety on existing highways and construct new state roads.
   In other words, the most important state agencies are about to run out of money, while dozens of minor ones would still have access to our tax dollars.
   Mike Braun, director of the legislative office that writes all bills and does other research, said individual programs could continue to receive funding if they covered in a certain way in state statutes. But no one has researched the 22,000 statutes on the books to see exactly what agencies or programs are covered and which ones aren’t, Braun said.
  Doesn’t really matter anyway, according to state Treasurer Dean Martin and William Bell, director of the state Department of Administration. Those two agencies have only one-year budgets, so without action by June 30, the state won’t be able to issue any checks and won’t be able to pay a single state employee, they said.
   Sen. Bob Burns, R-Peoria and in charge of the meeting, decided after more than two hours not to hear from most of the elected officials called in to explain the disaster coming if their state budgets aren’t renewed. But Secretary of State Jan Brewer did get a chance to predict that if there’s any disruption to her budget, the state won’t hold the September 2 primary on time.
   In one bit of good news, Braun told the committees he could find no legal barrier to the Legislature using temporary spending bills to keep government operating while negotiating a final budget. But there’s no indication that anyone is actually working on such potential measures at this point.
   Burns suggested that the Legislature might be able to get the budget process moving if Democratic lawmakers stopped cooperating with Gov. Janet Napolitano and just worked face-to-face with their Republican colleagues. I think I’ll win the Arizona Lottery before that happens, and I haven’t bought a single ticket this month.

ARIZONA’S COPPER DOME (original photo on Arizona Capitol Museum’s Web site

   We are now 14 days away from the end of the state of Arizona’s fiscal year. A new $10 billion budget should start July 1. But the Legislature and Gov. Janet Napolitano haven’t adopted one, and they haven’t figured out how to close a $2 billion budget gap. Unlike the federal government, the Arizona Constitution requires this state to operate from an adopted budget every year.
   It’s finally starting to sink in for lawmakers that a real deadline is approach fast. The Senate and House appropriations committees are scheduled to meet Tuesday afternoon in a special joint session to hear briefings from various officials about what options exist if there’s no budget deal by June 30.
   Will we have a government shutdown? Will lawmakers make their first-ever attempt to using continuing spending resolutions, similar to what Congress does ever year? Would such spending resolutions pass a legal challenge?
   Let’s see what happens, shall we?

My recent review of some key congressional and legislative races and a follow-up a day later was a hit with at least a few readers. A couple of people asked me to write about other legislative races that I didn’t get to before. So without further ado:

Arizona Legislature
District 5
   This would have been a pretty quiet race, as I had expected all three incumbents to win re-election. But the death of Sen. Jake Flake, R-Snowflake, came just days after the deadline for candidates to qualify for the September primary ballot. Today, the Navajo County Board of Supervisors appointed Sylvia Allen Tenney, R-Snowflake, to fill out Flake’s term this year, according to the Associated Press.
  Tenney had been making at least her second bid for a House seat against Reps. Bill Konopnicki, R-Safford and Jack Brown, D-St. Johns. But she and Konopnicki now are asking Republican Party officials to put their names on the Senate primary ballot to replace Flake, who had no challengers. The party could choose one, both or someone else altogether. The party also would fill any open spots on the House primary ballot. And write-in candidates also potentially could play a role now, although such candidates would need some serious campaign funds to have the faintest hope of competing.
   Update: Tenney was selected Saturday by Republican Party precinct officers to replace Flake on the party ballot, the Associated Press reported. With no other listed challengers, Tenney is essentially guaranteed to continue with a full two-year term. Konopnicki will remain a House candidate, and now doesn’t have to run much of a campaign this year as they are only two candidates for House seats — the two incumbents.

District 6
   Rep. Doug Clark, R-Phoenix, isn’t seeking re-election. That gives Republican Carl Seel of Phoenix perhaps his best chance yet of finally winning an elected office. The staunch social conservative has run unsuccessfully several times in the past decade for both the Legislature and the Arizona Corporation Committee. Seel has been loyal to GOP leadership and a good worker in the trenches, but hasn’t found the right fit with voters. Seel is not a shoe-in as incumbent Sam Crump and challenger Tony Bouie of Anthem are also in the Republican primary, and there’s a pair of Democrats who will be hoping for an upset in the general election.

District 8
   Tribune writer Dennis Welch originally reported on the biggest news here – Sen. Carolyn Allen, R-Scottsdale, will be unchallenged for her last term in the Senate. Once considered a Republican power player, Allen has alienated certain GOP factions because a social libertarian streak had led her to vote against further limits on abortions and to not want to mess with the Constitution by banning gay marriage (As a House member, she voted in favor of the state law that does the same thing and so far has been upheld).
   While I see her as a budget conservative (she was one of the few to oppose the StudentsFirst school construction plan that isn’t working very well), she doesn’t support slash-and-burn tactics offer by some Republican colleagues, especially when arts funding or environmental issues are involved. This means Republican legislative leadership can’t assume Allen will be a “yes” vote on any GOP-only budget.
   So some Republican activists have tried to drive Allen off, but they failed. It’s pretty hard to politically run over someone who’s so well-connected in Scottsdale and was at death’s door six years ago but came back pretty strong for her age (70).
   On the House side, Democrat Stephanie Rimmer continues to try to practice what she once preached. When Rimmer was a publicist for the private Clean Elections Institute, she argued taxpayer funding for campaigns enables candidates to overcome entrenched local politics and ideologies and reach out directly to voters.
   Rimmer certainly faces some entrenchment in this Republican-dominated district. This is Rimmer’s second attempt to win a House seat. We’ll see if she fairs any better than she did in 2006 against incumbents Michele Reagan, R-Scottsdale, and John Kavanagh, R-Fountain Hills.

District 11
   The House race here is hard to predict. This is supposed to be a Republican-heavy district centered on Paradise Valley, but Rep. Mark DeSimone, D-Phoenix, grabbed a House seat with lots of support from chamber of commerce types in 2006. DeSimone is by himself on the D side of the primary, so all of his energy (and funding) will go into the general election. The other House member, Adam Driggs, R-Phoenix, will be teamed up with newcomer Jon Altmann in an attempt to restore the political order of things.
   On the Senate side, no one can outcampaign or raise more funds than Barbara Leff, (she just whips up on publicly funded candidates with her private resources) and I don’t see a Democrat rally posing any serious threat to this Republican.

District 12
   House incumbent Jerry Weiers, R-Glendale, and Sen. Robert Blendu, R-Litchfield Park (who is moving over to the House because of term limits) should be easy winners, at least in theory. But I hear Republican challenger Steve Montenegro of Litchfield Park has some real support in this West Valley district, and a rising number of Democrats and independents might give Eve Nunez, D-Glendale, a chance to take a seat in the general election. However, there’s no way both Weiers and Blendu are defeated.

   NBC News is reporting that “Meet the Press” host Tim Russert died today of the heart attack while at work. Russert, 58, did not just host the highest rated Sunday TV talk show. He was a full-time working journalist and Washington bureau chief for NBC.
   In an era where the American public is increasingly disillusioned with journalists of all media, Russert was widely respected for his tough but fair questions and unpartisan approach to his job. This death is a huge loss for a news empire that has added increasingly partisan talk shows to its line-up including MSNBC’s Keith Obermann and Chris Matthews.

BOB LORD

   My colleague Mark Scarp and I sat down this morning with Bob Lord, the tax attorney running as a Democrat to challenge Rep. John Shadegg, R-Ariz. You can read more about our conservation and Scarp’s observations on the race for Congressional District 3 in Sunday’s Tribune.
   But Lord talked about one issue that I think Shadegg really is going to need to spend some time explaining to voters – support for military veterans returning from Iraq and Afghanistan. Lord said Shadegg has consistently voted against measures intended to boost salaries, health benefits and educational opportunities for these veterans. This includes what’s referred to as the new G.I. bill, co-sponsored by Rep. Harry Mitchell, D-Ariz.
   From the Walter Reed scandal to claims that Veterans Affairs has denied mental health treatment for post-traumatic stress disorder, there is a public impression that the U.S. isn’t doing a very good job of caring for vets.
   The Democrats’ response might be more about blaming President Bush and throwing money at these problems rather than thoughtful solutions. But I know Mitchell’s legislation has widespread support because of favorable memories of the first G.I. Bill and how it benefited the World War II generation.
   Shadegg has a challenge in explaining in every-day language why the new version should be rejected. Especially when Lord can comfortably come up with sound-bites like this:
   “This is not a question of fiscal conservatism. It’s a question of morality,” Lord told us. “These kids are risking death to protect us.”