(Original image at bolsonon.files.wordpress.com)
    Just when you thought Hillary Clinton’s bid for the White House was over…
  A coalition of bloggers and grassroot groups that support Clinton have joined together to say they won’t follow her lead and back Barack Obama’s nomination to head the Democratic ticket in November.
  The groups united last week under the name “Just Say No Deal” as in no deal for Clinton as vice president, and some are calling themselves “pumas” (party unity my a–). Apparently, individual members of the coalition have different goals. Some are pushing for a revolt at the Democratic National Convention in Denver to put Clinton at the top of the ticket. Others say they will push voters to support Republican John McCain.
   Of course, the latter course immediately got the attention of talk show producers on Fox News, and some ”puma” leaders already have appeared in interviews on “Your World with (Nick) Cavuto” and “Hannity & Colmes”.
   What I really find interesting is the coalition claims to have no formal ties to Clinton, but the news release I received came from a Clinton campaign email list. The Clintons never say one thing while doing something else, do they?

Can you tell Gov. Janet Napolitano from actor Paul Giamatti?
   NBC late night host Conan O’Brien had some fun Monday with the vice presidential sweeps by describing a “made-for-TV movie” and who would be cast to portray the candidates for the White House and their potential running mates. For example, O’Brien said NBC plans to cost comedian Tim Conway as Republican John McCain and Indianapolis Colts football coach Tony Dungy as Democrat Barack Obama.
   As for potential vice presidential running mates, Gov. Janet Napolitano took a cruel shot when O’Brien said she would be played by Paul Giamatti, best known for his roles in movies “American Splendor” and “Sideways.” Must be something about the glasses.
   To play fair with gender-bending jokes, O’Brien said Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice (and possible McCain choice) would be portrayed by rapper Snoop Dogg.
   But I think Democrats took the most vicious hits from O’Brien, including Sen. Hillary Clinton, who O’Brien said would be played by Chucky, the lifelike mass murdering puppet.
You can watch Monday’s whole sketch here. It starts about 6:34 minutes into the show. The Napolitano reference comes at the 9:11 mark.

 
SEN. JAKE FLAKE, R-SNOWFLAKE, FROM 2004 TOUR OF STATE CAPITOL (Tribune File).

   Sunday’s passing of Sen. Jake Flake certainly was a shock, as the reports I had heard were that Flake, 72,  was recovering well after receiving eight broken ribs from a fall from a horse in late May.
   The Snowflake Republican was one of Arizona’s most fascinating lawmakers that I have met over the years. Every time I interviewed him, I was taken back to my childhood in Wyoming where I was raised among other original cowboys and farmers who split their time working with their hands and serving the community.
   You could always count on Flake for a ranching-related quote when he wanted to make his point. I found this comment from 2003 that Flake made during his first year as House speaker to explain why he was supporting $400 million in new university buildings even as the state budget faced a huge deficit.
   “If you don’t get the bulls on the cows, you can’t get a calf crop,” Flake said on the House floor.
   At other times, Flake could be just eloquent, as in this quote from the summer in 2003 after wildfires ravaged Mount Lemmon.
   “We have not logged one tree on one day after the one-year anniversary of the Rodeo-Chediski fire, while the White Mountain Apaches who don’t have to follow the same rules have logged more than 100 million of beautiful board feet,’ He said. “I think we are in a sad state of affairs.”
   It will be interesting to see what happens now with one issue that Flake had championed for the past five years, despite a lack of funding or a public groundswell of support: remodeling and upgrading the state Capitol grounds for the state centennial in 2012. Flake was convinced the Legislature should find someway to replace the House and Senate buildings and the Executive Tower with new spaces that matched the pleasing aesthetics of the original Capitol under the copper dome.
   “We ought to be ashamed of the looks of our Capitol,” Flake told the Associated Press in December. “We ought to be ashamed of ourselves the way we pieced these things together.”

   My last blog post was about various congressional and legislative races that East Valley voters will have to consider in the coming months. Here’s my thoughts about a few other races around Arizona that you might hear about but won’t directly affect most Tribune readers.

U.S. House of Representatives, District 2
   I haven’t seen or read anything that makes me think incumbent Rep. Trent Franks, a Glendale Republican, is in any danger of losing this election.

District 3
   The first moment I heard that Bob Lord was campaigning for Congress, I knew the Democrat had at least an outside shot at defeating Republican incumbent John Shadegg. The convention wisdom is that Shadegg should win easily in a district where Republicans enjoy a 50,000-person lead in voter registration. Shadegg never has been seriously challenged since he was elected in 1994.
   But Lord has the perfect name for an upset. It’s easy to remember, looks great on campaign signs and every God-fearing Republican is taught from birth to admire and respect the word (as well as Democrats, independents and anyone else of the Christian faith).
   With national Democrats expecting a tsunami wave of voter support this November, fundraisers have targeted Arizona’s District 3 as a good place to invest. Shadegg didn’t help his campaign with a decision to retire that lasted for about two weeks before he reversed course to seek re-election.
   However, if anyone can hold out against a Democratic sweep across the country, it’s Shadegg. He’s viewed as a principled conservative who is able to work effectively with different factions within the Republican Party. He has no real scandals to explain. And he hasn’t lost his telegenic personality, which is matched or exceeded only by Jeff Flake among his Arizona Republican colleagues.
   Republicans convinced Shadegg to run again so their fortunes don’t look quite so grim in Washington. Democrats are hoping for a repeat of 2006 in Arizona’s District 5, where Democrat Harry Mitchell surprised Beltway types by sending J.D. Hayworth on to a career in Valley talk radio.

District 4
   We don’t hear or read much about Democratic Rep. Ed Pastor, who happens to be the senior member of Arizona’s entire House delegation and wields plenty of influence in Washington and in his hometown of Phoenix. That keeps the cash flowing to his campaign coffers and forces serious potential challengers to look at other offices instead.
   But there’s always someone willing to tilt at windmills in Arizona’s capital city. This year, Republican Don Karg, Libertarian Joe Cobb and Green Party candidate Rebecca DeWitt will make for a full ballot in this district in November.

District 7
   Rep. Raul Grijalva, a Tucson Democrat, is perhaps the most popular politician in southern Arizona, even more so than Gov. Janet Napolitano. A couple of never-been Republicans will compete in the September primary. But look for Grijalva to spend most of his time and money helping Barack Obama and other Democratic candidates, as he doesn’t have to worry about his own re-election.

District 8
   This is the biggest race in southern Arizona this year. Freshman congressmen are considered the most vulnerable, and Democratic Rep. Gabrielle Giffords has known since she won this open seat in 2006 that Republicans would be targeting her in this election. State Senate President Tim Bee decided he would be the Republican candidate even before Giffords had taken her oath of office.
  Bee has done most things right so far to position himself in a district where Republicans have a slight voter registration advantage. He cleared the field to avoid any primary competition and he has been lining up donors to keep pace with Giffords’ effective fundraising.
   But history hasn’t been kind to sitting Senate presidents who seek other offices. And the never-ending legislative session is a lead-weight on Bee’s campaign. Every time he’s away from the Capitol to raise money, Democrats complain loudly he’s not doing the job that voters elected him to do.
   Finally, Bee must swim against the Democratic tide that many people see washing up to swamp Republicans in November’s congressional races.

Arizona Legislature, District 1
   Sen. Tom O’Halleran, R-Sedona, is widely viewed by GOP activists as a RINO (Republican-In-Name-Only). He certainly has been a thorn in the side of his party’s leadership thorough his legislative career. But O’Halleran keeps getting re-elected, which implies this district’s voters care more about his ideas and positions than what other Republican politicians think of him.
   Still, some activists remain convinced a “true” Republican should be able to run O’Halleran out of office in this GOP-heavy district. Steve Pierce of Prescott will try to prove them right in the September primary.

District 3
   American voters have an inconsistent belief in redemption, depending on the seriousness of a politician’s offense and how recently it occurred. Incumbent Rep. Trish Groe, R-Lake Havasu City, hopes the voters in her western Arizona district are quite forgiving. Groe was arrested and later convicted for her second DUI last year as she drove home from Phoenix. She missed 30 days of the session while she was treated for alcohol addiction, but her colleagues have been more supportive than condemning.

District 10*

   Former Rep. Doug Quelland, R-Phoenix, was forced out in 2006 by a three-way battle for two seats in the general election with House Speaker Jim Weiers, R-Phoenix, and Democrat Jackie Thasher of Glendale. Quelland essentially blamed Weiers for the loss because Weiers campaigned on his own in the final weeks of that election when they were supposed to be working as a team.
   Quelland is back this year. If Thrasher makes it out of the Democratic primary where she has some competition, it will be interesting to see how she deals with Weiers and Quelland this time.

District 12**
   The Senate seat in this West Valley district is open, and other political observers say this traditional Republican area is gradually shifting to the Democrats. But state Rep. John Nelson, R-Litchfield Park, a former Phoenix City Councilman, still has to be considered the favorite over Democrat Angela Cotera of Avondale. Democrats have to win here to have any change of taking away the overall Republican majority in the state Senate.
  

District 26
   Democrat Charlene Pesquiera didn’t really expect to win the Senate seat in this traditionally Republican district north of Tucson. So she decided to not seek a second term. That opens the door for Republicans to potentially build on their 17-15 lead in the Senate. Republican Al Melvin lost to Pesquiera and is back this year, but he has to defeat experienced state Rep. Pete Hershberger in the September primary. Melvin is a clear fiscal and social conservative, while Hershberger is business-friendly but liberal on cultural issues. The winner will face Democrat Cheryl Cage, who ran Rep. Lena Saradnik’s successful campaign in the same district two years ago.

District 30
   A Democrat in Green Valley is almost as lonely as one in east Mesa. But that party managed to find a candidate in Georgette Valle from the upscale senior retirement community for the open Senate seat in this district.
   Still, most people I know already are giving the nod in this race to Rep. Jonathon Paton, R-Tucson. He’s a relentless campaigner who tries to call 10 constituents every single day. The only time that he significantly strayed from that task was when he volunteered to serve in Iraq as an officer in Army Reserve.

*This additional comment on District 10 corrects the original post which referred to Quelland, Weiers and Thrasher under District 12. I also corrected these comments to reflect that Quelland and Weiers don’t have any competition in the Republican primary.

**This section has corrected from the original post to remove an inaccurate reference to the House races.

   Tuesday was the deadline for candidates for federal, state and county offices (Maricopa, Pinal) to submit their voter signatures and qualify for the September primary ballots. Petition challengers have nine days left to file their court cases in an attempt to get individual candidates knocked off the ballot; it’s a little political dance Arizona does every two years in June.

   So, assuming none of these candidates disappear from the list sometime in the next two weeks, here are some of my thoughts about what should be the most interesting legislative races affecting the East Valley.

Congress, House of Representatives, District 1

   There’s a collection of candidates from both parties seeking to replace Rep. Rick Renzi, who’s not running for re-election because of a federal criminal indictment on money laundering and corrupt influence charges. But it appears Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick of Flagstaff and Republican Sydney Hay of Munds Park (sort of Flagstaff) will emerge to face off in the November general election. Hay is the only prominent Republican in the group and narrowly lost the primary to Renzi during his first bid for this district that covers most of the northern half of Arizona. Kirkpatrick, who resigned her state House seat to run, has started to pick up endorsements from reliably Democratic interest groups. Democrats hold the voter registration advantage in this district, but it only has been represented by the Republican Renzi since it came into existence in 2002.

District 5
   This is the election race I expect East Valley voters will hear about the most this the summer and fall. We have six Republicans vying for the chance to try and dethrone freshman Rep. Harry Mitchell, a Tempe Democratic. Five of those Republicans have prominent political backgrounds.

   Not that it matters. Republicans have a voter registration edge in District 5, but I have trouble believing any of them can overcome Mitchell’s political status, which is anchored by decades of teaching high school political science. It seems like every week I run into another former Mitchell student, and they all vote for him regardless of their party registration.

District 6

   Republicans hold a 2-1 edge over Democrats in this district, and even independents tend to break for the GOP here. So it’s a surprise that Democrats will have a competitive primary between Chris Gramazio of Queen Creek and Rebecca Schneider of Mesa. Incumbent Jeff Flake also will have a Republican primary opponent in Scott Bergren of Chandler. There’s even a Libertarian, Rick Biondi of Chandler.

   Keep in mind that state Rep. Russell Pearce, R-Mesa, who would have had a far stronger advantage in this district than any of the challengers, decided earlier this year that Flake couldn’t be defeated and is running for the state Senate instead.

Arizona Legislature, District 17

   With no primary competition, Republican Jesse Hernandez of Tempe will try yet again to unseat incumbent Democrat Meg Burton Cahill, also of Tempe. But Democrats now have a slight voter edge in this district and independent voters, which make up 28 percent of the total registration, tend to break for Democrats as well. That’s why this district’s legislative delegation has swung from all Republicans to all Democrats in the past decade.

District 18

   A big shuffle going on here in this west Mesa district that leans heavily Republican, as Sen. Karen Johnson steps down and Rep. Mark Anderson campaigns for Congress. Most people assume Russell Pearce is a shoo-in to replace Johnson in the Senate. But he did struggle some in the House race two years ago. Pearce faces fellow Republican Kevin Gibbons in the primary, and the winner must defeat Democrat Judah Nativio to win the seat.  On the House side, look for a little free-for-all with two open seats and the most prominent name belonging to the sole Democrat, Tammie Pursley, who campaigned for the Legislature in 2006.

District 20

   This district covering Ahwatukee Foothills, south Tempe and west Chandler always has attracted lots of candidates since it was created in 2002. The same is true this year with Democrat Ted Maisch of Chandler trying to knock off incumbent Sen. John Huppenthal, R-Chandler, who never has lost an election.

   But I think the interesting team to watch will be Democrats Jim Torgeson and Rae Waters. Torgeson really wants to get to the Legislature after his battles with a couple of East Valley cities over his sign-walking business. Waters is looking to step up from her seat on the board of the Kyrene Elementary School District. Expect them to make a credible challenge for the House seat left open by the departure of Rep. Bob Robson, R-Chandler. (Incumbent Rep. John McComish, R-Ahwatukee, is running again).

   On the Republican side, airline pilot and former Air Force officer Frank Schumck of Chandler has been the most visible campaigner so far. But Andy Swann of Tempe recently retired from a lengthy career with the Arizona Department of Public Safety, the type of training that sways many Republican voters.

District 22

   By far, this district will feature the most fascinating East Valley legislative primary with Rep. Eddie Farnsworth, R-Gilbert, challenging incumbent Sen. Thayer Verschoor. As the Senate Republican floor leader, Verschoor has discovered partisan principles sometimes conflict with leadership’s task of getting legislation adopted. This is especially true when the governor is from the other party. Farnsworth will hit Verschoor hard wherever the senator has strayed from strict conservative policies. I wonder if Verschoor will hit back by pointing out that when Farnsworth held a similar post in House leadership, these principles essentially were run over by a handful of Republicans who united with Democrats to adopt a budget over Farnsworth’s heated objections.

  Spoiling a classic one-on-one showdown, Joe Bedgood of Gilbert also has jumped in the Republican primary. Bedgood is counting on picking up Republicans and independents not happy with legislative brinkmanship by both lawmakers. But my guess is he will just steal votes from Farnsworth as a fellow challenger.

  The Senate race opens up one House seat and three Republicans are competing for the chance to be Rep. Andy Biggs’ running mate.

District 23

   This is another district that has attracted lots of legislative candidates in recent years, prompted by the rapid growth in the Pinal County Republican Party as a byproduct of population growth. The biggest change is who isn’t running, Rep. Pete Rios, a fixture in the Legislature for most of the past 25 years. His daughter, Sen. Rebecca Rios, D-Apache Junction, will be back if she can fend off newcomer Republican Andr Campos of Arizona City.

   But on House side, fellow incumbent Rep. Barbara McGuire, D-Kearny, will be mixing it up with three other Democrats including former Rep. Ernest Bustamante of Mammoth. Meanwhile, the two Republican challengers from 2006, Frank Pratt of Case Grande and John Fillmore of Apache Junction, will be back in the general election for a rematch.

YURI DOWNING (Tribune file photo)

  
   The East Valley’s most notorious wannabe politician and fugitive felon might have run to the ends of North America to escape the law. But he was captured last week only a few miles from his childhood home.
   Yuri Downing, a graduate of the Arizona State University law school and one-time candidate for the state Senate, was arrested Friday at a Tucson car wash after three years of dodging jail time and taunting authorities about his whereabouts.
   In 2002*, Downing campaigned to represent Tempe and south Scottsdale in the Senate. He teamed up with two friends who ran as House candidates and the trio qualified for more than $100,000 in state campaign funding. After losing that election, Downing was accused by the Citizens Clean Election Commission and the state Attorney General’s office of being the ringleader of a scheme to defraud taxpayers with a fake campaign while spending the money to buy liquor and food, to rent expensive vehicles and office space, and for other personal uses.
   Downing fiercely denied any wrongdoing for months, but then pleaded guilty in December 2004 to a felony count of perjury. In exchange, the Attorney General’s office agreed to a sentence of probation (which meant no time in state prison), but asked the judge to require Downing to spend four months in county jail.
   Apparently struggling with a drug addiction and unable to face the prospects of jail, Downing twice violated the conditions of his bond and disappeared from sight in March 2005. In July of that year, I profiled Downing’s troubled life.
   Later in 2005, I reported that Downing cost his parents $18,000, as they had borrowed against their Tucson house to bond him out of jail. The court had postponed taking the bond cash out of respect to Downing’s father, then-state Rep. Ted Downing, D-Tucson.
   At the time, speculation around the county courthouse was that Downing had fled to Costa Rico or Mexico. He speaks Spanish and had told Phoenix police he could blend in easily south of the border.
   But court documents filed over the past three years hint that Downing mostly flitted across the Southwest, staying in the shadows and taking advantage of the fact he was a relatively low-priority fugitive. Still, the attorney general’s office continued to hunt for him.
   Andrea Esquer, press secretary for Attorney General Terry Goddard said today she couldn’t discuss how that office’s investigators finally found Downing. Esquer said the original sentence was revoked and Downing now faces up to three years in prison on the perjury conviction. And now he’s likely to be charged with escape from custody as well.
Downing was being held today in the Pima County jail, but will be brought to Maricopa County to face justice. Not surprisingly, he’s being held without bond.

*This date has been corrected from the original post.

REP. PHIL LOPES, THE HOUSE DEMOCRATIC FLOOR LEADER (left), GOV. JANET NAPOLITANO AND FORMER SEN. LINDA AGUIRRE. (Photo found at azgovernor.gov)

  Now, Democrats in the Arizona Legislature want to consider real budget cuts, with less than a month to go before the end of the fiscal year.
   They weren’t interested in early January when the predicted budget shortfall for 2008-09 was predicted to be approaching $1.7 billion. They weren’t interested in mid-March when the shortfall grew to $1.9 billion.
   Only as it becomes clear that the shortfall likely has reached $2.2 billion do Democrats finally concede there is a serious problem at the Capitol.
   Many Arizonans have been frustrated that Republicans, the majority party in Legislature, can’t get their act together to come up with a plan to take to Gov. Janet Napolitano. But at least they haven’t shied away from the reality that state government can’t pay the bills.
   The Legislature can’t do its constitutionally mandated job of adopting a balanced budget with smoke and mirrors. There has to be an actual reduction in spending, period.

Gov. Janet Napolitano hands out the first Arizona quarters Monday at the State Capitol.  (Capitol Media Services)
   Today’s official ceremony to release the Arizona quarter to the public was quite a hit, as more than 2,000 proud state residents turned out at the Capitol to exchange $10 for rolls of the newly minted coins and commemorative folios.
   At least 300 people stood in line for an hour or more for their chance to be among the first to collect the quarters minted earlier this month in Denver and Philadelphia as of part of the federal government’s 50-state program.
   A trio of retired teachers from Phoenix were at the head of the line: Mary Ann Yee, her sister Kay Gin and Jeanne Osborn.
   “We’re very patriotic,” said Yee, wearing a shirt draped in the colors of the American flag. “If it weren’t for our immigrant parents we wouldn’t be here. Any time they commemorate the history of the great state of Arizona, we want to be there.”
   Yee and Gin had a special connection to the quarter ceremony as their cousin Kimberly Yee works for State Treasurer Dean Martin. In turn, Martin took part in the ceremony by riding on top of an original Wells Fargo stagecoach to the state Capitol. Pulled by four white horses, the stagecoach delivered a faded green strongbox that carried some of the first Arizona quarters that rolled off the presses from the U.S. Mint.
   Gov. Janet Napolitano, who picked the Arizona design, clearly had a great time today. After reading a proclamation, she was mobbed by dozens of children who were handed one free coin each. The crowd around Napolitano had barely died down after about 20 minutes and her staff had to drag her away.
   Meanwhile, the line for adults swelled to well over a thousand people immediately after the ceremony. The demand was so high that Tribune photographer Paul O’Neill said someone “lifted” a quarter that had been taped to his media information kit.
   Some people who came to be part of the fun had decided not to risk the waiting line. State historian Marshall Trimble said he already had ordered a collection of quarters directly from the U.S. Mint.
   “I just hope they arrive,” Trimble said.
   As the official bank of the State Quarter Commission, Wells Fargo also gets an exclusive shot at handing out quarters for a few days. The bank near my office in Mesa said it would have quarters available for exchange on Tuesday. But a news release from Napolitano’s office said some banks could have the quarters available this afternoon.