Everywhere I go these days, people tell me they are expecting big things for Democrats on Tuesday, even in the home state of Republican presidential candidate John McCain. They point to polls showing that Democratic candidate Barack Obama is within striking distance here in Arizona, as well as the hefty fund raising that the state Democratic Party has done this election cycle.

But, as counterintuitive as it sounds, the heavy turnout expected for Tuesday plays in favor of Republicans in Arizona, especially incumbent officials in races where name recognition will heavily influence who wins.

Tribune writer Dennis Welch explains some of this in his story today about how the early ballots returned so far reflect the large voter registration advantage that Republicans have in Maricopa County.

In fact, Maricopa County Republicans make up nearly 46 percent of the returned early ballots, while Republicans make up just under 40 percent of the total number of county registered voters. On the other hand, registered voters who fall in the “other” category make up only 19.6 percent of the returned early ballots, while they are 27.8 percent of all registered voters this year.

So Maricopa County Democrats, who must have independents swing their way to take away elected offices from Republicans, will have to count on an even stronger turnout on Tuesday to overcome the Republican early voting advantage. Sure, there are Republicans who will to vote for Obama and perhaps even Democrats in hotly congested congressional races. But history tells us such voters revert to party patterns as they move further down the ballot, especially with candidates that have higher name recognization than the challenger from the other party. That’s good news for Republican lawmakers and other incumbents such as Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio and County Attorney Andrew Thomas.

Greg Patterson, one of Arizona’s most popular political bloggers, has gone out on a limb and predicted that Arizona Republicans will have a surprising number of victories on Tuesday. I’m not going that far, but I do think Republicans will fare better than conventional wisdom is proclaiming on the street. For example, I previously have said I don’t believe Democrats can take control of either chamber of the Arizona Legislature.

Tribune writer Tony Natale is reporting that low-cost carrier Allegiant Air is offering, today only, $15 ticket for outbound flights from Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport. But air travelers have to pay regular price for the return trip. Gee, isn’t the implied message here that people should fly away from Mesa and not come back? I wonder if Allegiant consulted with Mayor Scott Smith or economic development director William Jabjiniak before launching this promotion.

BOB BARR (LEFT) AND RALPH NADER

Political junkies looking for special entertainment can catch a couple of the third-party candidates for president tangle Thursday afternoon, as independent Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr are scheduled to debate in Cleveland. The sponsor, The City Club of Cleveland, says Chuck Baldwin from the Constitution Party also will attend the event, which is supposed to start at 1:30 p.m. Thursday, Arizona time.

Both Barr and Nader waged a heavy three-week campaign in September and early October through the mainstream media and YouTube videos in an effort to join at least one of the three debates between John McCain and Barack Obama. But they were ignored by the major campaigns and no outside political pressure was applied. So much of the public was denied at least one opportunity to hear a few alternative views to the typical Democratic-Republican tango.

Steve Siton, the Barr’s campaign communication director, was excited when I spoke to him about Thursday’s debate and the possibility of getting at least a little national attention. He also claimed that McCain’s campaign, at least, is clearly worried about the impact that Barr might have on Tuesday’s general election.

“About damn time, isn’t it?” Siton said. “For two weeks now, Bob Barr has been the tie-breaker covering the spread between those other candidates in the battleground states. John McCain shows up wherever we go. I can get Sarah Palin to your town faster than the RNC (Republican National Committee).”

Siton said a news release from the City Club expected C-SPAN to broadcast the debate. But the event wasn’t listed on C-SPAN’s daily schedule, so it’s possible such a broadcast could delayed until the middle of the night. If you want to be sure to hear it live, Restore the Republic Radio is promising to carry it as an Internet audio feed, and the sound quality was quite good when I tuned in briefly today.

Visitors to Scottsdale’s SouthBridge last weekend enjoyed the tastes of Eats3, a three-day spectacle devoted to gourmet food and wine that organizers hope will become an annual event. (Photo courtesy of Morgan Bellinger.)

I decided to try something a little different last weekend and went to check out the final day of Eats3, which must have translated as heaven for lovers of gourmet food and wine. The event was held in downtown Scottsdale and sponsored by a variety of local restaurants working under the collective name of Savor Scottsdale.

Like several other signature Scottsdale happenings, Eats3 stretched out over three days and featured a mixture of local and nationally-renowned chefs cooking and providing on-site demonstrations for people to watch. Jacques Pepin was the supposed to be the featured talent of the weekend. But Stephanie Izard drew a bigger crowd during her open-air demonstration, perhaps a tribute to the popularity of the TV show “Top Chef.” Or maybe because Pepin’s second performance took place at an awkward time late Saturday afternoon.

I wanted to go to Eats3 in part to see how it showed off Scottsdale’s new SouthBridge development below the canal that runs just south of Scottsdale Fashion Square. But it was the Marshall Way Bridge itself that really elevated the show, as the bridge has done for several other high-profile events since it opened more than a year ago. Nibbling on a selection of delectables is somehow always more pleasant when I’m doing it over water.

I spent most of my time at the Arizona Grand Tasting, which had the largest diversity of restaurant and wine choices. I worried about the hot afternoon weather (apparently we now have to describe this as seasonal), but the bridge roof and assorted tents provided ample shade and comfort. Pork seemed to be the secret theme ingredient, and I’d have to say my favorite taste of the afternoon was a Spanish wild boar rib from Sol y Sombra. Exotic but not too wild. The most surprising dish was beef tongue from Estate House. It was downright savory, and I never thought I’d say that about eating a cow’s tongue.

Eats3 publicity says there were 200 different wineries Saturday handing out samples, and I think that was only a slight exaggeration. But wine isn’t my forte; so I couldn’t resist also visiting the only beer distributor on-hand: Anchor Steam from San Francisco, with a long-time salesman appropriately named Robert Brewer. He was offering the world’s first tastes of the brewery’s upcoming Christmas ale (Plenty of the right spices at first; but the flavor quickly fades).

Overall, Eats3 had a strong crowd without being crowded, leaving enough elbow room to move around freely and take in the food as well as the sights of this dramatically upgraded area of downtown Scottsdale. I don’t know if that was good news for Savor Scottsdale (a packed bridge would have meant more money in the kitty at $85 a ticket), but it certainly encouraged me to look forward to Eats3 returning next year.

Now I know why Arizona Democrats are so enthusiastic about the Nov. 4 election. The Republican Party’s edge in registered voters has slipped to less than 100,000 people, or 37 percent of the total number of registered voters compared to the Democrats’ 34 percent. As reported today by Paul Davenport with The Associated Press, Democrats have moved above 1 million registered voters for the first time ever. Just four years ago, Republicans held a 40 percent to 35 percent advantage.

The biggest swings include the 3rd Congressional District (home of Rep. John Shadegg, R-Ariz.) where Republicans actually have lost about 500 registered voters since 2004, while Democrats have added about 5,000; and in the 5th Congressional District (home of Rep. Harry Mitchell, D-Ariz.) where Republicans have lost a whopping 10,000 registered voters while Democrats have picked up about 9,000. (The GOP still has the largest number of voters in both districts).

Of course, both major parties have lost a huge number of voters to minor parties and unaffiliated independent registrations. The portion of voters registered in the “other” category (which excludes Republicans, Democrats, Libertarians and now the Green Party), has surged from 17 percent in 2000 to almost 28 percent now.

But independents tended to vote for Democrats in 2006, which is why that party unexpectedly picked up additional seats in the Arizona Legislature and Mitchell defeated former Rep. J.D. Hayworth. All signs point to independents doing the same this year. This reinforces my expectation that Arizona will send more Democrats than Republicans to the U.S. House for the first time since 1966. But I still believe there aren’t enough viable Democrat candidates for that party to take control of either chamber in the Legislature.

Sen. John McCain was thrilled to speak to an enthusiatic Arizona crowd after a successful run of the Super Tuesday primaries in February 2008 (Tribune file photo).

Arizona Sen. John McCain will be here in the Valley for the biggest night of his political career — after the polls have closed on the 2008 election. The McCain election night party will be at the Arizona Biltmore Resort and Spa, the same spot where McCain celebrated his big Super Tuesday win during the primaries in Feburary. The room was packed that night, and obviously there should be even more Arizonans who will want to see McCain as the general election returns come in.

But this Associated Press story says Arizona fans at the party will have to watch McCain give his election night speech on television like the rest of the world. In an odd departure from tradition, McCain is planning to speak from a spot on the Biltmore lawn outdoors, surrounded only by a few supporters and a limited number of media reporters.

One government college professor told AP that McCain might be forced into this as the Biltmore space isn’t all that big (which I can attest to) and an election night speech is for TV cameras anyway. However, the move also seems to fit the view offered by Libertarian candidate Bob Barr today that McCain now is expecting to lose to Sen. Barack Obama.

But I’m certainly not counting McCain out, not after seeing the new AP poll implying that the race might be tighter than other polls are showing.

I recently wrote in a print column that a Maricopa County Superior Court judge had declared unconstitutional a two-year-old Arizona law that allowed disputes between homeowner association boards and HOA members to be addressed by a state hearing officer. This was intended to be a more affordable and homeowner-friendly alternative to fighting an HOA board in court. The point of the column was to outline various possible options if that ruling stands. But the headline of the column was rather provocative, suggesting that I sided completely with the HOA industry in opposing any more government regulation. That brought out some real anger among both local readers and HOA activists across the country. Here’s an example of what they had to say to me from reader Melissa Hill:

“Before you wrote this article you should have investigated further into the issues surrounding HOAs and the folks that live in them. This is not simply a contractual issue. A few members of a neighborhood can band together and change the contract ‘rules.’ or contract terms, at any time without discussion or vote, as has happened in my neighborhood, and use scare tactics to force the neighbors into ‘compliance”’of these new contract terms, as they would be considered by (Scott) Carpenter.  While this is illegal under our existing documents, they do it because they know that the homeowners do not have the money to challenge them in a court of law.  In the real world we call that “bait and switch”, also known as FRAUD.

“The title of your article is downright irresponsible and shows your ignorance of the rampant misdoings in HOAs.  I’m a board member in my HOA, and I know what I’m talking about.  And my board president IS A LAWYER.  Mr. Carpenter has much to gain by leaving the system as it is. This is not a professional opinion that should carry much weight in a story about the true FACTS of the situation.”

And that was among the more polite emails I received (Melissa and I exchanged several additional emails of a more positive nature, and I respect her passion on this issue).

While doing my interviews, it was pointed out that a Superior Court judge doesn’t set precedent. So the hearing officer process might just continue even if it couldn’t be applied to this specific case. But another alert reader let me know that Scott Carpenter’s law firm already has requested that the judge’s ruling be applied to all future HOA cases, which essentially would block the hearing officer route entirely.

We’re still waiting to hear whether state Attorney General Terry Goddard will appeal the ruling.

The Valley’s National Public Radio affiliate, KJZZ-FM (91.5) recently invited me into the studio with morning news anchor Dennis Lambert for an interview about three Arizona ballot measures: Proposition 100, an constitutional amendment that would ban any taxes on the sale of real estate; Proposition 101, another amendment that would guarantee anyone’s right to pay for private health care from their own pockets; and Proposition 201, which would mandate 10-year warranties on new home construction. The interview was presented today during NPR’s Morning Edition, at about half of the length of the entire conservation (which is rather generous for a broadcast interview).

These initiatives are widely seen as “less sexy” than a constitutional ban on gay marriages or the measure pushed by the payday loan industry; and the details can be complicated. While the Tribune Editorial Board has taken a stand on all of the measures, I sought to give a balanced explanation about what they would do and outline the strongest arguments provided by those for and against them. Listen for yourself and let me know how I did.

Rep. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., often appears to be a lone wolf crying in the distance as he is among a handful of conservatives voting against spending measures and piddling acts of recognition that Congress wastes its time with instead of just closing up shop for the day. But Flake’s consistent philosophy has brought him some special attention after six years in the U.S. House, as Esquire magazine has named him among the 10 best members of Congress.

Flake is best know for his vocal campaign against earmarks. But Esquire is praising him for his opposition to sweeping powers of surveillance presumed by the Bush administration that Congress has sought to rein in:

A true conservative, Flake is as rare as the dodo. Republicans should learn from him, and liberals and libertarians will find in him a strong privacy-rights ally. With Democrat Adam Schiff (Calif. 29), he’s led a rearguard action to place domestic terror surveillance under court guidance.

Other members of Flake’s class, according to Esquire, including Reps. Henry Waxman, D-Calif., Mike Pence, R-Ind. and Mike Simpson, R-Idaho, as well as Sens. Olympia Snowe, R-Maine, and Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn.

The popular magazine has a worst-10 list as well, surprisingly topped by Sen. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn., and Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas (who shouldn’t be on the list simply because of his strong support for open government laws). Sen. Ted Stevens, R-Alaska, also made the list (just barely) as did Democratic Reps. John Murtha of Pennsylvania and William Jefferson of Louisiana.

 (AP Photo)

I caught Sen. John McCain tonight on the David Letterman Show on CBS, taking his medicine for cancelling a similar appearance two weeks ago as part of McCain’s short-lived “suspension” of his presidential campaign to deal with the national financial meltdown. Letterman was upset by the last-minute disappearance. But he got downright angry when he learned during the taping of that show that McCain hadn’t actually left New York for Washington, but instead went a couple of blocks over for an interview with CBS news anchor Katie Couric.

Letterman got a lot of comedic mileage out of the faux pas with a relentless pounding of McCain for several nights. But I wondered if Letterman would back off with McCain rescheduling and actually showing up this time. Nope! Most of Letterman’s jokes in the monolouge were fired right at the Arizona senator. The funniest was a camera shot into the wings where MSNBC Countdown anchor (and huge McCain critic) Keith Olbermann was waiting to jump in if McCain didn’t show again (Olbermann filled in for McCain two weeks ago).

Then, Letterman gentled harangued the senator once he got on stage. At least McCain didn’t dodge his responsibility. When Letterman asked for McCain’s explanation, he said simply, “I screwed up.”

McCain likely expected a quick joke or two at his expense and then by-gones would be by-gones. Instead, he was in for a long night. Once Letterman finally let the canceled appearance drop, he grilled McCain over and over about selecting Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as the Republican vice presidential candidate. Letterman’s questions honed in on Palin’s experience, or lack thereof, and Letterman’s conviction that she’s not prepared to lead the country through another terrorist attack like 9/11.

McCain did take the opportunity to give the longest and most detailed justification I’ve heard from him about Palin. McCain’s list of Palin’s strengths include her reputation as a reformer, her growth from a PTA mom to mayor and then governor, her willingness to challenge (and defeat) an incumbent from her own party when she saw her state going in the wrong direction, and her huge popularity in Alaska today.

In all, it seemed like rather painful experience for McCain. But he took his lumps and he probably won’t have Letterman hounding him for the next 18 days of the campaign.