Republican Chris Simcox launches his bid Monday for the U.S. Senate at the state Capitol in Phoenix (Capitol Media Services).
I didn’t attend the press conference today at which Chris Simcox formally began a campaign to defeat U.S. Sen. John McCain in the 2010 Republican primary. But I’m not surprised his announcement was dominated by the issue that has kept him in the spotlight for the past four years: stopping illegal immigration. Simcox gained attention in political circles after he founded the Minuteman Civil Defense Corps and took his cause nationwide with the 2005 call for civilian patrols based in Tombstone that inspired new chapters and copycat organizations across the country. Even though McCain was the 2008 Republican candidate for president, his popularity has slipped within his home state party in part because of his support for comprehensive immigration reform, which critics see as code for immigrant amnesty. The issue is likely to heat up again this year as President Barack Obama has pledged to seek passage of immigration policy changes that have failed in Congress recently.
But as McCain began his bid for president, he retreated from comprehensive immigration reform to support a “secure the border first” stance. He repeats those words no matter how hard he’s pressed now (scroll down to the 8 a.m. hour on April 15).
Simcox will have to become competitive on other issues, or he’ll never be a serious threat to McCain. Here’s my evidence as to why:
- Jim Gilchrist of Aliso Viejo, Calif., was Simcox’s partner in 2005 when the Minuteman movement got underway. Later that year Gilchrist ran for the U.S. House as a third-party candidate during a special election in his conservative district. He did relatively well, but he never really challenged the eventually Republican winner.
- Closer to home, Don Goldwater (nephew of Barry Goldwater) ran for the Republican nomination for Arizona governor in 2006 and was supported by Simcox because Goldwater made illegal immigration a centerpiece of his campaign. But he lost by a wide margin to Len Munsil, whose comments on the issue were more moderate (as far as Republicans go).
- Former U.S. Rep. J.D. Hayworth, R-Ariz., also lost his bid for re-election in 2006 after a well-publicized shift to the right on immigration issues during the prior two years. Hayworth routinely claims that Democrat Harry Mitchell actually had TV campaign ads that were tougher on illegal immigration than Hayworth’s own campaign. But I have yet to speak to a voter in the 5th Congressional District who so confused in 2006 as to believe that Mitchell was closer to Simcox’s views than Hayworth.
- State Sen. Russell Pearce, R-Mesa, has to be the best known Arizona politician who campaigns for really tough immigration policies, after Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio. Pearce has been urged by Simcox and others to run either for governor or the U.S. House. But Pearce has backed off from both after he realized that an immigration-centered campaign wouldn’t capture enough voters and also would turn away many would-be donors who want more expansive immigration policies.
Simcox’s best chance is voter turnout for the 2010 primary could be incredibly low, as first noted by blogger Greg Patterson. That means only the most active and loyal Republicans will cast ballots, and some of McCain’s loudest critics come from that crowd. But any Republican who upsets McCain likely would be vulnerable to a Democrat in the general election, which is why I expect most of the Republican Party machinery to unite behind the senator. That will leave Simcox sitting at home after the 2010 primary, assuming he makes it that far.
Here’s a short video clip of Simcox’s press conference:
Twitter