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Le Templar: What I Know ~

Archive for September, 2009

Yet another too-early election poll

September 29th, 2009, 3:37 pm by Le Templar

Can we start referring to Attorney General Terry Goddard as the early front runner in next year’s governor’s race? A national political poll released today, the second in less than a week, shows Arizona voters favor Goddard over Republican incumbent Jan Brewer and at least one other prominent GOP name. As with the previous survey, the new poll from Rasmussen Reports leaves out a number of potential Republican contenders, so these results are in no way predictive of what will happen next year. Still Democrats are happy to tout Goddard’s standing in these polls as a real trend.

Interestingly, Rasmussen is often cited by Republicans as more reliable than other national polling firms. (Sssh! Don’t tell the GOP that poll founder Scott Rasmussen is a former member of the mainstream media.) So these results should provide more emphasis for Republican insiders to “encourage” Brewer to step aside and let other contenders vie for the 2010 party nomination.

University regents demand huge budget increase

September 29th, 2009, 10:10 am by Le Templar

Everyone in Arizona knows the state faces an immediate operating budget deficit of nearly $1 billion, and a long-range or “structural” deficit of $3 billion to $4 billion. The situation is so dire that Gov. Jan Brewer has asked state agencies to deliver proposals for scaling back by yet another 15 to 20 percent in mid-year spending cuts. So what should those state agencies be considering in proposals for the next budget year, which are due in the governor’s office by Thursday?

The Arizona Board of Regents has decided to demand more money, a lot more money, as in a 46 percent increase.

At the Board of Regents monthly meeting last week (held in Flagstaff), there was widespread frustration with the state budget situation and how it is affecting the state’s three public universities. The university presidents point out the state hasn’t raised funding to match the record growth in student enrollment, and hasn’t provided enough cash for building construction or major maintenance.

The Board of Regents’ staff had prepared an agenda item that offered to raise state university funding from $1.04 billion to $1.36 billion*, or a 15 percent increase. That alone seems rather lofty.

But a few regents asked the three presidents to hastily come up with a new proposal that reflects the “true cost” of public university education. Arizona State University President Michael Crow clearly was eager to do so. He boldly accused state lawmakers of violating the state constitution because they haven’t raised taxes to give his school more money, as you can see in the video below from the regents’ meeting:

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The new budget proposal would raise state funding for universities to $1.459 billion or a $459.1 million increase. For about 30 minutes, the regents debated whether to send both budget choices to the governor’s office, or just the massively more expensive option, as board President Ernest Calderon explained:

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The board deadlocked at 5-5 on the motion that would have sent both budget choices to Brewer and lawmakers. Then, the board voted 7-3 to submit the 46 percent increase.

If you watch the whole video, you will see that regent Fred Boice of Tucson is the only person who injects any sort of common sense:

“I think, consciously or subconsciously, we have taken a step into a different world. And that for us to go to (lawmakers) and hand them a bill for $(459) million, knowing full well they can’t balance their current budget, that is a bit inappropriate.”

It’s too bad Boice’s comments came after the last vote.

Most of the discussion on the video suggests the regents are taking a brave, new stance in defense of university education. But, in fact, the universities and board regents have a recent track record of being completely unrealistic in budget matters.

In the spring of 2008, the universities convinced then-Gov. Janet Napolitano to push for $1.4 billion in new building construction, even though the details of the state’s budget woes already were starting to emerge. The universities’ pitch was the construction would be a state economic stimulus, as if that somehow would be popular in this politically conservative state.

The Legislature reluctantly went along with last year’s request, and then delayed the funding because of the growing budget problems.* This year’s proposal will be laughed right out the door.

But this is no laughing matter. Pushing for a showdown with such absurd budget numbers will seriously damage the Board of Regents’ credibility with lawmakers, while creating false hope among the thousands of university employees who are far more likely to be laid off in the coming months.

*NOTE: This post has been updated to reflect the fact that the Legislature approved a version of last year’s university construction stimulus plan, formally known as SPEED. The original post incorrectly said the Legislature rejected it. As updated, the post explains the plan was later delayed because of budget issues. Also, a decimal error in one of the proposed budget numbers has been corrected.

Ariz. students surpass Okla. in civics

September 28th, 2009, 1:27 pm by Le Templar
Matthew Ladner

Matthew Ladner

A while back, I mentioned a survey of high school students by the Goldwater Institute that used civics questions from the standard U.S. citizenship test. The survey found 96.5 percent of the students couldn’t get a passing score (although students at private schools fared substantially better than those at public schools). Now, the Goldwater Institute’s Matthew Ladner offers a sliver of hope about those results.

Another conservative think tank in Oklahoma was intrigued by the Goldwater Institute experiment and wanted to try it on students in Sooner country. So that think tank used the same set of questions for its own telephone survey and had Ladner write up the results: 97.2 of all Oklahoma students couldn’t pass the test to become U.S. citizens (if they were foreign immigrants).

Keep in mind, the questions are about basic U.S. history and government organization — topics that, in theory, should be known to every literate American. And the answers should be fresh on the minds of high school students since they should have studied those topics recently.

The natural inclination is to blame the U.S. education system. But I suspect the problem really lies in a culture that values instant gratification and knowledge by Wikipedia and Google instead of institutional memory and personal exploration with the bedrock principles of U.S. civics.

Verschoor could run for state treasurer

September 25th, 2009, 3:19 pm by Le Templar

Sen. Thayer Verschoor, R-Gilbert, will be entering his last year in the state Senate in 2010 under Arizona’s term limits. But it appears he’s not ready to walk to away from elected office yet.

Verschoor created an open exploratory committee Thursday, and he told me by phone that he’s looking closely at a campaign for state Treasurer. There’s already a Republican in that office, but Dean Martin is looking at a possible run for governor.

“I don’t intend to run against Mr. Martin,” Verschoor said. “But if that office comes open…”

Verschoor doesn’t have any particular training related to the duties of the treasurer. But he has served for most of his Senate career on the Appropriations Committee, and this year he’s in charge of Senate commission review potential long-range budget reforms. Verschoor also points to past experience in the private sector as the owner of a small business and a manager for Circle K. (As Nerdvana just said in the newsroom, maybe exactly what Arizona’s fiscal woes need right now is a Thirst Buster.)

As for Verschoor’s replacement in the Senate, Rep. Andy Biggs, R-Gilbert, already has created his own exploratory committee. I imagine Biggs would darn hard to defeat in District 22.

National Dem pollster looks at Ariz. elections

September 23rd, 2009, 3:06 pm by Le Templar

In a sign that Arizona politics continues to attract national interest, a Democratic political pollster based in Raleigh, N.C., is rolling out a series of quick turnaround voter surveys related to 2010 statewide elections. Results released today from Public Policy Polling shows Arizona voters currently favor Democrat and Arizona Attorney General Terry Goddard to be the next governor over Republican incumbent Jan Brewer and two other GOP big names: state Treasurer Dean Martin and former Gov. Fife Symington. (Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker, who is formally announcing his move into the race tonight, wasn’t offered as a choice.)

On Tuesday, the same firm released polling numbers about President Barack Obama and potential Republican challengers in 2012.

Spokesman Tom Jensen said told me his firm is looking at the political climate in various states across the U.S. this fall where there’s expected to be hot races for U.S. senator and governor in 2010. This week happens to be Arizona’s turn. The firm is covering the costs of these polls out of its own pocket, presumably to drum up publicity and to attract individual candidates as clients.

Jensen said the firm will release survey details Thursday about potential Democratic challengers to Sen. John McCain (Janet Napolitano?). On Friday, it will have a closer look at possible Republican primary match-ups.

Public Policy Polling is upfront about its political leanings but insists that it focuses on honest results. The firm doesn’t have much experience in Arizona.  Jensen told me its pollsters first sampled state voters in August 2008 to see if Barack Obama had any shot at upsetting McCain in his home state during the presidential election. Seeing that McCain had a lead of 12 percentage points, Public Policy Polling didn’t waste any more time here.

McCain’s biggest threat in the 2010 Senate race would be in the Republican primary and not from any Democrats, especially since Napolitano still will be running Homeland Security. But Democrats are eager about Goddard heading their 2010 ticket and potentially elevating other candidates. So Public Policy Polling is back and ringing up registered voters again.

PV mayor tips toes into governor’s race

September 22nd, 2009, 5:12 pm by Le Templar
Vernon Parker/submitted photo

Vernon Parker/submitted photo

Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker has been talking for weeks about possibly entering next year’s race for Arizona governor as a Republican. He took a step closer today toward a possible challenge to Gov. Jan Brewer by creating an exploratory committee. This comes a day ahead of a public rally at InterContinental Montelucia Resort and Spa that Parker’s PR expert has been promoting as a “major announcement.” The setting and tone of Parker’s speech is likely to make him look exactly like a candidate running for statewide office, although he might not actually declare just yet to avoid any questions about triggering Arizona’s “resign to run” law. Parker certainly has created a lot of buzz among Republicans that, as a candidate of color, he could match enthusiasm for Barack Obama among independents and moderate voters of both major parties. Parker also could be viewed as an outsider to the state Capitol who would bring some fresh ideas to tackling the state budget mess. I expect Parker to oppose Brewer’s proposed sales tax election, so it will be interesting to see how he would pursue shrinking state government by $3 billion to $4 billion to match current tax revenues.

A huge plus for Parker is he already has picked up the support of Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arapio, although Arpaio supplied the oddest sounding endorsement today in a news release from Parker’s camp:

” ‘Mayor Parker is a stand-up guy with an unbelievable personal story. His candidacy would be very good for our Party and potentially our state,’ said Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, qualifying that he has still not closed the door completely on running for governor himself and is not yet endorsing any candidate for governor if he does not run.”

Stapley arrest suggests Arpaio losing savvy

September 21st, 2009, 4:13 pm by Le Templar

Is there anyone who takes at face value a claim from Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio that his office’s arrest of county Supervisor Don Stapley this morning has absolutely no connection to Friday’s dismissal of the remaining criminal counts against Stapley from a previous case? Of course, some people believe the original investigation and arrest of Stapley was spurred after Stapley publicly questioned Arpaio’s management of the sheriff’s office in the wake of the Tribune’s Pulitzer Prize-winning series, “Reasonable Doubt.” It’s part of the reason that Maricopa County government has become a feuding snake pit, with Stapley’s colleagues essentially siding with him and against Arpaio in various power struggles and lawsuits.

But a lot of people outside of county government were willing to give Arpaio a lot of leeway politically. Stapley has been a county supervisor for a long time, but he’s also a real estate developer who has close ties to a convicted felon. Perhaps the sheriff’s investigators really had found some wrongdoing on Stapley’s part, many people reasoned.

But to claim today’s arrest was a complete coincidence? I don’t think hardly anyone is going to believe Arpaio this time. This investigation has been underway since January, and supposedly was finished 12 days ago. But Arpaio’s office didn’t refer the case to County Attorney Andrew Thomas or another prosecutor to seek an indictment, which is the typical step for a complex and lengthy investigation targeting an elected official. No, Arpaio or one of his supervisors just randomly decided today was the day to rush out and arrest Stapley. Oh, sure.

The bad timing can only damage the state’s efforts to actually convict Stapley if the sheriff does have credible evidence of felony crimes. Certainly, any judge or jury is going at least wonder if the filing of another 100 criminal charges at this point is politically motivated.

Today’s arrest was the wrong legal move and it didn’t help Arpaio’s public image either. That seems rather odd for a sheriff who usually finesses the latter so well.

RELATED:

Sheriff’s Office: Stapley arrested in tax, campaign, business fraud

Arizona constitution shines among the 50 states

September 17th, 2009, 12:08 pm by Le Templar
Nick Dranias/Goldwater Institute

Nick Dranias/Goldwater Institute

In honor of Constitution Week, the Goldwater Institute has released report that compares the 50 state constitutions to what we usually consider the gold standard. As Goldwater is a think tank devoted to the philosophy of limited government and economic freedom, report author Nick Dranias naturally reviews the state constitutions from that perspective.

In “50 Bright Stars,” Dranias concludes nearly every state has a fundamental document that offers more protections for civic rights and more restrictions on the scope and power of government than is described in the U.S. Constitution or as interpreted by the U.S. Supreme Court. The state constitutions that shine the brightest for freedom are found in Arizona, Alabama, Tennessee and Idaho, Dranias concludes after combining his own analysis with the Mercatus Center’s economic freedom study.

In fact, Arizona ranks first in one of Dranias’ charts that factors in 10 different benchmarks for a classic constitutional republic. That result might be bit of home state bias, as Arizona’s actual score based on Dranias’ analysis was matched by Florida and Louisiana.

Before we puff up our chests too much, Dranias has one, giant caveat — neither state or federal governments really look anything like the limited structures that were envisioned by the framers of the U.S. Constitution in 1787:

“In a very real sense, Arizonans and the residents
of a handful of other states hold the flame
of liberty in their hands — a flame with the
illumination of a match-light, not a torch.
Whether or not we can keep that flame
alive, grow it, and spread its illumination
across the nation depends critically upon
focusing limited resources where they will
have the greatest impact.”

CD5 gets its own health care town hall

September 16th, 2009, 3:58 pm by Le Templar
Jim Ward

Jim Ward

Some Republicans from Rep. Harry Mitchell’s home district have complained because the Democratic congressman didn’t host any town halls on health care reform or any other topic during the August recess. Mitchell did hold a couple of telephone conference calls with the public that his staff says reached more than 18,000 people. But some people in Congressional District 5 felt cheated because they didn’t get an opportunity to discuss the issue in person with their representative. The people I heard from didn’t want a shouting match. They just wanted to have an honest discussion about what Democrats in Congress have proposed and to hear what Mitchell thinks about it.

Well, Republicans are getting at least part of that wish, as venture capitalist and 2010 congressional candidate Jim Ward is hosting a health care reform forum tonight (Wednesday) at 7 p.m. at the Mustang Library in Scottsdale.

Ward will have on hand a couple of experts: Clint Bolick from the Goldwater Institute and Dr. Eric Novack from Arizonans for Health Care Freedom. Clearly, the panel will be biased against what President Barack Obama has proposed, but the discussion still could get lively.

Comedy skit about state budget lacked laughs

September 16th, 2009, 1:20 pm by Le Templar

The Arizona critics seem to agree. Not even professional comedic writers/fake reporters such as The Daily Show’s Jason Jones can be funny when it comes to the enormous deficits plaguing the state budget. The Tucson Weekly, the Arizona Guardian, and everyday viewers all shared my view that last night’s segment about selling the legislative buildings to raise cash was not The Daily Show’s best work.

Jones’ tact was to act as an investor exploring the potential (and down sides) of being the Legislature’s new landlord. He was hampered by the fact that only legislative Democrats would agree to take part, when we all know it was the Republicans who were behind this plan. Sen. Linda Lopez, D-Tucson, filled in and tried defend the idea, but clearly she didn’t believe in what she was saying. I did like the scene where Jones scrolled “unannounced” into the House office of Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Phoenix, climbed on her desk and pushed up a ceiling tile to inspect the dark shadows above.

You can check out the segment for yourself below:

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