Reps. Gabrielle Giffords and Harry Mitchell

Vice President Joe Biden is in Arizona this morning, trying to build support for the White House economic stimulus efforts and attending a fundraiser for  some Democrats in the state’s delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives. Biden’s visit coincides with a growing national consensus that Reps. Harry Mitchell and Gabrielle Giffords could be especially at risk to a national shift in voter sentiment back to the Republican Party.

Independent observers are doing some detailed analyses that point to Mitchell and Giffords as among the incumbent Democrats most vulnerable in the 2010 election. For example, the political web site fivethirtyeight.com lists Mitchell among the top nine House Democrats to be in danger. Giffords lands in the next lower tier but still is among the top 20. (Hat tip to Phxated.com for writing about this first.)

What do these vulnerable Democrats have in common? They come from districts where Republicans have the edge in voter registration and the Democrats didn’t have overwhelming victories in 2008. These Democrats have voted for the health care reform legislation or cap-and-trade carbon emissions (Giffords voted for both). And they have a relatively weak advantage in fundraising over potential challengers.

However, I suspect this view of Mitchell and Giffords has been generated in part by wishful thinking by Republicans who can’t understand why these two keep getting elected. For Mitchell, Congressional District 5 has thousands of Republicans and independent voters who don’t cast ballots based on his party or his congressional record. They are voting for a beloved former teacher who introduced them to politics through their high school civics class. Mitchell is something of a surrogate grandfather whose views don’t always match the voters, but he hasn’t done anything too crazy. A contested Republican primary next year will help Mitchell because some opponent fundraising will be spent in the primary instead of all of it being directed at him.

For Giffords in Congressional District 8, she always has understood exactly her challenges as a Democrat since she first ran in 2006. Emphasizing her native roots and love for Tucson, Giffords connects very well with people one-on-one. She also is relentless about fundraising, and the fivethirtyeight.com analysis shows she has the biggest lead in cash among all of the identified vulnerable Democrats.

Personally, I’ve been impressed with that district’s upstart campaign of Republican Jesse Kelly. He’s positioned himself well on the issues to take advantage of the anti-incumbent, anti-Democrat mood that appears to be bubbling up. His biggest problem has been convincing the Republican Party that he can overcome a lack of name identification to seriously threaten Giffords. He’s made some in-roads, but there are many Republicans still looking for a candidate better known to voters. State Sen. Jonathan Paton, R-Tucson, is frequently mentioned as a dream challenger.

The vice president is raising money today for one incumbent not included on that most-vulnerable list: Ann Kirkpatrick. The Congressional District 1 race is flying under the radar because Democrats have more registered voters and Kirkpatrick’s potential challengers haven’t raised much money, yet. But the district is quite conservative and Kirkpatrick won her first term in the fallout from former Rep. Rick Renzi’s criminal indictment for political corruption. There’s also this video where Kirkpatrick literally walked out of a meeting with her constituents. Expect that video to get a lot of air time and blogger references in the coming year.

My guess is Kirkpatrick will be at least as vulnerable as Mitchell and Giffords next year.