Archive for the 'Congress' Category
November 16th, 2009, 10:26 am by Le Templar
 Reps. Gabrielle Giffords and Harry Mitchell Vice President Joe Biden is in Arizona this morning, trying to build support for the White House economic stimulus efforts and attending a fundraiser for some Democrats in the state’s delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives. Biden’s visit coincides with a growing national consensus that Reps. Harry Mitchell and Gabrielle Giffords could be especially at risk to a national shift in voter sentiment back to the Republican Party.
Independent observers are doing some detailed analyses that point to Mitchell and Giffords as among the incumbent Democrats most vulnerable in the 2010 election. For example, the political web site fivethirtyeight.com lists Mitchell among the top nine House Democrats to be in danger. Giffords lands in the next lower tier but still is among the top 20. (Hat tip to Phxated.com for writing about this first.)
What do these vulnerable Democrats have in common? They come from districts where Republicans have the edge in voter registration and the Democrats didn’t have overwhelming victories in 2008. These Democrats have voted for the health care reform legislation or cap-and-trade carbon emissions (Giffords voted for both). And they have a relatively weak advantage in fundraising over potential challengers.
However, I suspect this view of Mitchell and Giffords has been generated in part by wishful thinking by Republicans who can’t understand why these two keep getting elected. For Mitchell, Congressional District 5 has thousands of Republicans and independent voters who don’t cast ballots based on his party or his congressional record. They are voting for a beloved former teacher who introduced them to politics through their high school civics class. Mitchell is something of a surrogate grandfather whose views don’t always match the voters, but he hasn’t done anything too crazy. A contested Republican primary next year will help Mitchell because some opponent fundraising will be spent in the primary instead of all of it being directed at him.
For Giffords in Congressional District 8, she always has understood exactly her challenges as a Democrat since she first ran in 2006. Emphasizing her native roots and love for Tucson, Giffords connects very well with people one-on-one. She also is relentless about fundraising, and the fivethirtyeight.com analysis shows she has the biggest lead in cash among all of the identified vulnerable Democrats.
Personally, I’ve been impressed with that district’s upstart campaign of Republican Jesse Kelly. He’s positioned himself well on the issues to take advantage of the anti-incumbent, anti-Democrat mood that appears to be bubbling up. His biggest problem has been convincing the Republican Party that he can overcome a lack of name identification to seriously threaten Giffords. He’s made some in-roads, but there are many Republicans still looking for a candidate better known to voters. State Sen. Jonathan Paton, R-Tucson, is frequently mentioned as a dream challenger.
The vice president is raising money today for one incumbent not included on that most-vulnerable list: Ann Kirkpatrick. The Congressional District 1 race is flying under the radar because Democrats have more registered voters and Kirkpatrick’s potential challengers haven’t raised much money, yet. But the district is quite conservative and Kirkpatrick won her first term in the fallout from former Rep. Rick Renzi’s criminal indictment for political corruption. There’s also this video where Kirkpatrick literally walked out of a meeting with her constituents. Expect that video to get a lot of air time and blogger references in the coming year.
My guess is Kirkpatrick will be at least as vulnerable as Mitchell and Giffords next year.
Posted in: Congress • Election issues • Ann Kirkpatrick • fivethirtyeight.com • Gabrielle Giffords • Harry Mitchell • Joe Biden • Rick Renzi | 11 Comments »
November 6th, 2009, 11:34 am by Le Templar
Arizona Attorney General Terry Goddard let the world know this morning via Twitter that he’s going to formally take steps toward running for governor:
“Today I will file papers to explore running for Governor. AZ needs strong leadership focused on jobs & ending partisan gridlock”
It’s been known for some time that Goddard, a former mayor of Phoenix, planned to make another bid for the post after losing out to Republican Fife Symington in 1990 and to Democrat Eddie Basha in the 1994 primary. Goddard is even considered an early frontrunner and likely will be the only major Democratic candidate to enter the race.
He will be “exploring” until at least mid-January to avoid triggering Arizona’s “resign to run” law. However, some people believe the attorney general already has violated it and should have resigned his current job already.
Goddard’s announcement comes less than 12 hours after the Republican incumbent, Jan Brewer, formally entered the race. The timing likely isn’t a coincidence.
Note: This post has been corrected to reflect the accurate information about Goddard’s past campaigns.
Posted in: Congress • Election issues • Governor • Journalism • 2010 elections • Jan Brewer • Terry Goddard | 1 Comment »
November 4th, 2009, 1:40 pm by Le Templar
 Rep. Gabrielle Giffords sent this photo by Twitter Wednesday morning to show she's reading the latest health care reform bill. One of the most stinging comments about Congress this summer during the health care town halls and TEA parties was Democrats were pushing major bills so fast that lawmakers couldn’t possibly read and understand what was in them before voting. One group even launched a campaign to get written pledges from individual lawmakers that they would read any health care reform legislation before voting “yes” or “no.” In turn, enough pledges would force the Senate and House to prepare written versions of such bills a few days before any votes so the public could digest them as well.
But exactly how do members of Congress “prove” they have read a bill? Issuing news releases would be a written form of saying, “I did my homework,” and wouldn’t convince the skeptical.
So some members of Arizona’s congressional delegation have turned to social media such as Twitter to show what they are learning in real time. Republican Rep. John Shadegg started the trend on Oct. 29 when he sent out the following tweet at 2:51 p.m.:
“Pg. 140 of the #healthbill extends immunity to ERISA insurers when they wrongfully deny coverage http://tinyurl.com/yzaqnac”
Several others joined in Tuesday. GOP Rep. Jeff Flake shared his first thoughts at 1:30 p.m.:
“Sitting around a table with my Republican colleagues, reading the massive Pelosi healthcare bill. Haven’t found anything good in it yet.”
Rep. Trent Franks piled on about 2.5 hours later:
“H.R. 3962 essentially does away with private insurance http://amplify.com/u/sqv via @RepTrentFranks #tcot #handsoff #hcr #gop”
A couple of Democrats have spoken up as well. Rep. Harry Mitchell pointed to a couple of highlights at 4:30 p.m. Tuesday:
“Reading HC Bill – Some items of note: Sen McCain idea - high risk pool pg 16; Insurance can’t drop people w preexisting conditions pg 95″
Then today, Mitchell sent back-to-back tweets at 9:30 a.m.:
“More notes from reading the bill Section 309 PG 202 - Insurance Across State Lines”
“Other sections to look at carefully Public Option Negotiated Rates: Sec 323 PG 216 & Small Business Exemption up to $500,000: Sec 413 PG 276″
Rep. Gabrielle Giffords decided to go the route of “a picture is worth a thousand words,” with the above photo of her with bill in hand. Not to be outdone, Republican Rep. Trent Franks went with this tweet:
“@RepShimkus RT Side by side, the Pelosi Health Care Bill and the GOP Alternative: http://twitpic.com/o8zuh More freedom or more government?”
Here’s the photo that the tweet points to:
So, are you convinced these people will know what they are voting on?
Posted in: Congress • Gabrielle Giffords • H.R. 3962 • Harry Mitchell • health care reform • Jeff Flake • John Shadegg • Trent Franks | Post a Comment »
September 23rd, 2009, 3:06 pm by Le Templar
In a sign that Arizona politics continues to attract national interest, a Democratic political pollster based in Raleigh, N.C., is rolling out a series of quick turnaround voter surveys related to 2010 statewide elections. Results released today from Public Policy Polling shows Arizona voters currently favor Democrat and Arizona Attorney General Terry Goddard to be the next governor over Republican incumbent Jan Brewer and two other GOP big names: state Treasurer Dean Martin and former Gov. Fife Symington. (Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker, who is formally announcing his move into the race tonight, wasn’t offered as a choice.)
On Tuesday, the same firm released polling numbers about President Barack Obama and potential Republican challengers in 2012.
Spokesman Tom Jensen said told me his firm is looking at the political climate in various states across the U.S. this fall where there’s expected to be hot races for U.S. senator and governor in 2010. This week happens to be Arizona’s turn. The firm is covering the costs of these polls out of its own pocket, presumably to drum up publicity and to attract individual candidates as clients.
Jensen said the firm will release survey details Thursday about potential Democratic challengers to Sen. John McCain (Janet Napolitano?). On Friday, it will have a closer look at possible Republican primary match-ups.
Public Policy Polling is upfront about its political leanings but insists that it focuses on honest results. The firm doesn’t have much experience in Arizona. Jensen told me its pollsters first sampled state voters in August 2008 to see if Barack Obama had any shot at upsetting McCain in his home state during the presidential election. Seeing that McCain had a lead of 12 percentage points, Public Policy Polling didn’t waste any more time here.
McCain’s biggest threat in the 2010 Senate race would be in the Republican primary and not from any Democrats, especially since Napolitano still will be running Homeland Security. But Democrats are eager about Goddard heading their 2010 ticket and potentially elevating other candidates. So Public Policy Polling is back and ringing up registered voters again.
Posted in: Arizona government • Congress • Election issues • 2010 elections • Dean Martin • Fife Symington • Jan Brewer • Public Policy Polling • Terry Goddard • Vernon Parker | Post a Comment »
September 8th, 2009, 5:53 pm by Le Templar
Arizona lawmakers and state officials often talk about a constitutional requirement to adopt a balanced budget. That simple statement can be somewhat misleading, because there’s no way to really know if a budget is balanced under the state’s accounting system until the fiscal year is over and there’s a final tally of revenues and expenses.
The state constitution even anticipates a situation in which unpredicted expenses push the state budget out of balance when those tallies come in. Article 9, Section 4 authorizes the Legislature to imposes taxes that cover such potential deficits and also will balance the budget for the next year as well.
A new report from staff for the Joint Legislative Budget Committee makes it clear that the state now is in violation of that provision, and likely a second mandate in Article 9, Section 5, which limits state debt.
The report was prepared in response to Gov. Jan Brewer’s final actions on the 2009-10 budget last week, which included vetoes that bring back a statewide property tax and that restore funding for K-12 education and the Department of Economic Security. In essence, the JBLC report says a 2009-10 budget that was balanced when adopted by the Legislature now is predicted to have $464 million in deficit spending because of Brewer’s vetoes. The Legislature still could act on that problem before June 30 and wipe out the pending deficit.
But the JLBC report also notes that the last fiscal year concluded with a $500 million deficit, despite earlier rounds of funding cuts and other maneuvers. The current budget has no provisions to address that deficit, which also qualifies as debt because the money has been committed and is owed to someone.
Brewer could fix last year’s deficit on her own by directing federal stimulus money to cover it. But that would reduce even further the amount of federal money available in case this year’s budget stays in the red. Don’t even ask about the potential deficits for the next budget on the horizon.
Arizona’s courts have basically ignored the state debt limit for years — allowing state and local governments to enter various borrowing schemes including the sale of bonds and lease-to-purchase of state buildings. My guess is the judges also would treat the ongoing budget deficit as a political problem that can’t be solved with a court ruling.
But it’s still interesting to note that Arizona lawmakers still haven’t accomplished their one official task under the constitution.
Posted in: Arizona Legislature • Arizona government • Congress • Election issues • Governor • Presidential campaign • Arizona Constitution • Jan Brewer • Joint Legislative Budget Committee • state budget | 1 Comment »
August 31st, 2009, 4:54 pm by Le Templar
A statewide telephone poll of likely Arizona voters shows a temporary 1-cent sales tax to help shore up the state budget would have a good chance of passing. But those same voters wouldn’t elect Gov. Jan Brewer to a full term if the 2010 general election were held today.
The poll was commissioned by Mesa real estate magnet Wil Cardon, apparently in a bid to boost Cardon’s own potential candidacy for governor or some other statewide office. (In a news release, Scottsdale political strategist Jason Rose floats state treasurer or chairman of the Arizona Republican Party as other possibilities).
The poll surveyed 602 voters who had cast ballots in the past two statewide primary or general elections. Campaign strategists consider this type of sampling to be more reliable than other polls that sample all Arizonans or all registered voters. You can see the full results here, but I’ll pull out a few highlights:
* Voters narrowly favored passage of the temporary sales tax increase at 49 percent in favor and 43 percent against. That’s within the poll’s margin of error of 4 percent. But toss in the fact that these voters identified funding for K-12 education and resolving state budget as two of the state’s three top pressing concerns, and you can see that a sales tax definitely could pass. Only a handful of those survey were concerned about tax reductions, which has been a top priority for Republicans who control the Legislature.
* Brewer’s political fortunes would seem closely tied to that sales tax proposal. But this sampling of voters found much unhappiness with the governor’s performance. Only 18 percent said they would vote for her in 2010 and 45 percent said they are likely to vote for someone else.
* Who might that someone else be? Well, the poll also asked respondents to consider the potential challengers by job title or political experience (no names were used). “A successful businessman with a young family” got the most picks at 42 percent, which is exactly the description that Cardon would use in a statewide campaign. The next closest were “a former state senate president and secretary of state” (Ken Bennett) at 27 percent, and “an incumbent Attorney General” (Terry Goddard) at 12 percent.
* The poll also found strong support for a flat income tax (although the wording of the question appears slanted to support that proposal’s most favorable arguments) and expanding term limits to require politicians to sit out for two years before they could run for a new office. But the poll respondents were opposed to stripping lawmakers of the pay ($24,000 a year plus expenses) or to going to one legislative session every two years as the Texas Legislature does.
Coming this weekend: Read Austin Hill’s interview with Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker, who is also considering a run for governor as a Republican in 2010. In the Tribune Opinion section.
Posted in: Arizona Legislature • Arizona government • Arizona secretary of state • Congress • Election issues • Governor • Presidential campaign • Jan Brewer • Jason Rose • state budget • Summit Group • Vernon Parker • Wil Cardon | 1 Comment »
August 25th, 2009, 1:23 pm by Le Templar
The Arizona Legislature is moving to end the budget special session by adjourning sine die, which will have the net effect of granting Gov. Jan Brewer more time to decide what to do with most of the budget bills sent to her last week (she signed one bill dealing with the state parks and the state land department).
Under the state constitution, Brewer had five days to sign or veto the bills while the Legislature was in session — or they automatically became law. Her deadline is Wednesday. But a quirk in constitutional language means that once the Legislature ends the special session, Brewer will have another 10 days.
If Brewer decides to veto anything or reaches a new deal with lawmakers, she can call the Legislature back into another special session almost immediately.
UPDATE: House Democrats are calling today’s end of the special session are “sign of hope.” From a news release:
“We are hopeful that Gov. Brewer and our Republican colleagues will continue to work in a bipartisan way with Democrats so we can solve this budget together,” said House Democratic Leader David Lujan. “Bipartisanship is necessary to pave a road toward economic recovery and prosperity for the future of education and middle-class families in Arizona.”
Posted in: Arizona Legislature • Arizona government • Congress • Election issues • Governor • Presidential campaign • Jan Brewer | Post a Comment »
July 27th, 2009, 3:14 pm by Le Templar
 John Paul Mitchell Early voting for Arizona’s state primaries is about a year away, but a candidate for governor scheduled to hold the first public event is already looking ahead to the November 2010 general election.
John Paul Mitchell hopes to qualify for the state ballot as an independent, which would allow him to bypass the primaries and go head-to-head against the Republican and Democratic nominees (and the Libertarian and Green alternatives, if those parties decide to get into the race).
I have written before about Mitchell, who is a manager at a Phoenix credit card call center. I continue to be impressed with the energy that Mitchell is throwing into what has to be a long-shot campaign. He’s got a robust Web site, is active on social media and has taken on some campaign staff. Now on Thursday, Mitchell will hold his first public forum before the Republican incumbent and the most likely Democratic challenger have even become candidates.
Mitchell is striving to run an unconventional campaign that uses rapidly evolving social technology to appeal to voters who are not longtime activists in the two major parties. In keeping with this theme, Mitchell will hold a two-hour online town hall to answer questions from the public. The chat, or liveblog, will feature Web software from Scribblelive, which allows users immediate access to such events through existing social media accounts such as Facebook, Twitter and Flickr.
Now, it’s hard to see how Mitchell will have a major impact on next year’s election. After all, a central tenet of his politics is running government without any taxes and the 16th Amendment never was legally ratified. The latter position tends to held by extreme, anti-tax protesters who sometimes wind up in prison.
But Ron Paul surprised a lot of people with his 2008 success in fundraising, if not with the popular vote, and pioneered some Internet techniques that Mitchell will try to expand upon. So it will be worth watching to see what Mitchell does.
Posted in: Congress • Courts • Election issues • Governor • 2010 elections • John Paul Mitchell | Post a Comment »
July 21st, 2009, 11:15 am by Le Templar
 Photo by Capitol Media Services Arizona’s horse and dog tracks stepped up their latest campaign Monday to get access to slot machines and possibly other forms of gambling. Such a move would violate the 2002 gaming compact with the state’s Indian tribes that was put on the ballot by initiative and narrowly approved by voters. But the racetracks’ new strategy, crafted by Scottsdale uber-publicist Jason Rose, makes the case that the Tonoho O’odham already have broken the compact with plans to build what would be the state’s largest casino in Glendale. That site isn’t anywhere the state’s second biggest reservation, but apparently would be allowed under an obscure federal law quietly approved by Congress before the 2002 vote. The Tohono O’odham tribe has purchased the land and is waiting for the federal government to declare the location as part of its sovereign territory.
The racetracks are arguing voters had no idea in 2002 that renewing an exclusive monopoly for Indian tribes on slot machines and blackjack (and adding poker) would enable them to build new casinos in areas not part of their existing territories. Sheila Morago, executive director of the Arizona Indian Gaming Association, objects to the notion that voters might have been fooled or kept ignorant during the 2002 campaign.
“That’s your perception,” she told Capitol Media Services. “Has anybody ever asked them?”
Well, as someone who covered the 2002 campaign, I can definitely say that no one ever mentioned the possibility of one or more tribes opening casinos on land not previously recognized as eligible. In fact, there was some debate about the distinct competitive advantages that the urban tribes such as Salt River and Gila River (and the Tonoho in Tucson) had over tribes in rural areas. That was one reason why the compact (as previously negotiated by then-Gov. Jane D. Hull) allows the tribes to sell or lease their designated slot machines to another tribes. The idea was that rural tribes who would face real challenges in attracting casino customers might find it easier and more profitable to sell their share to an urban tribe.
The tribes seem to like their current monopoly. They remain opposed to allowing more gambling at the race tracks, even though that would trigger a “poison pill” in the 2002 compact that would lift most restrictions on tribal casinos. But the tribes need to prepare themselves for a potential backlash that could benefit competitors if the Tohono O’odham tribe goes through with its plans in Glendale.
Posted in: Arizona government • Congress • Election initiatives • Election issues • Governor • dog tracks • horse tracks • Jane D. Hull • Jason Rose • tribal gaming | 1 Comment »
July 17th, 2009, 12:19 pm by Le Templar
 Anti-tax protesters in Gilbert on July 4, 2009 (Tribune file photo by Darryl Webb). If a taxpayer town hall I attended last night at San Tan Flat is any harbinger of things to come, Gov. Jan Brewer is making a whole host of enemies within the Republican Party with her insistence on a statewide election for a temporary, 1-cent increase in the sales tax.
At least 120 people jammed into a side room for an event sponsored by Tom Jenney with Americans for Prosperity. While the meeting was ostensibly nonpartisan, these folks were almost universally Republicans from Queen Creek and Chandler.
They were upset that Brewer and a Republican-controlled Legislature have yet to adopt a balanced budget. But they seethed with anger that Brewer, widely viewed as a traditional conservative, is so adamant about the proposed sales tax increase instead of cutting back further on state government spending.
No one from the Brewer administration was present, but several Republican lawmakers from Gilbert and Chandler were pressed to explain the governor’s perspective. Rep. Andy Biggs and Sen. Thayer Verschoor (both from Gilbert) struggled to do so, but admitted they also oppose a sales tax election. At one point, a woman shouted out to ask why Brewer wasn’t supporting her own party. That word echoed off the lips of people around the room for long time (why? Why? WHY?) while the lawmakers looked around helplessly.
Others demanded that the lawmakers help to organize the Republican rank-and-file to flood Brewer’s office with phone calls, e-mails and faxes. The idea was that Brewer would change her mind and oppose a tax increase if she simply heard from enough protesters.
But Sen. John Huppenthal, R-Chandler, urged the crowd to not underestimate Brewer. Huppenthal has watched Brewer’s political career since they served together in the state Senate. The governor fights as hard as any politician in the state, Huppenthal said, and she never loses.
“When she’s on your side, she’s your best friend,” Huppenthal said. “But when she’s on the other side, it gets nasty. I have watched her go 13-0 in (political) death matches.”
Another person caught in the middle was Randy Pullen, the state Republican Party chairman, who sat quietly in the back until Biggs called Pullen out for issuing a news release supporting a sales tax election. Pullen said he backs an election because he’s convinced voters will reject higher taxes, and then Brewer and the Legislature will have no choice but to cut the budget further. Verschoor said he suspects that’s part of Brewer’s strategy as well.
Reacting to murmurs about a possible recall, Verschoor reminded the audience that Brewer is not Janet Napolitano, pointing to Brewer’s signing of bills in favor of gun rights and of placing new restrictions on abortions.
“I am grateful to have Jan Brewer in the governor’s office,” Verschoor said.
Posted in: Arizona Legislature • Arizona government • Congress • Election issues • Governor • Presidential campaign • Andy Biggs • Jan Brewer • John Huppenthal • state budget • TEA parties • Thayer Verschoor | 3 Comments »
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