
Archive for the 'Election issues' Category
November 16th, 2009, 10:26 am by Le Templar
 Reps. Gabrielle Giffords and Harry Mitchell
Vice President Joe Biden is in Arizona this morning, trying to build support for the White House economic stimulus efforts and attending a fundraiser for some Democrats in the state’s delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives. Biden’s visit coincides with a growing national consensus that Reps. Harry Mitchell and Gabrielle Giffords could be especially at risk to a national shift in voter sentiment back to the Republican Party.
Independent observers are doing some detailed analyses that point to Mitchell and Giffords as among the incumbent Democrats most vulnerable in the 2010 election. For example, the political web site fivethirtyeight.com lists Mitchell among the top nine House Democrats to be in danger. Giffords lands in the next lower tier but still is among the top 20. (Hat tip to Phxated.com for writing about this first.)
What do these vulnerable Democrats have in common? They come from districts where Republicans have the edge in voter registration and the Democrats didn’t have overwhelming victories in 2008. These Democrats have voted for the health care reform legislation or cap-and-trade carbon emissions (Giffords voted for both). And they have a relatively weak advantage in fundraising over potential challengers.
However, I suspect this view of Mitchell and Giffords has been generated in part by wishful thinking by Republicans who can’t understand why these two keep getting elected. For Mitchell, Congressional District 5 has thousands of Republicans and independent voters who don’t cast ballots based on his party or his congressional record. They are voting for a beloved former teacher who introduced them to politics through their high school civics class. Mitchell is something of a surrogate grandfather whose views don’t always match the voters, but he hasn’t done anything too crazy. A contested Republican primary next year will help Mitchell because some opponent fundraising will be spent in the primary instead of all of it being directed at him.
For Giffords in Congressional District 8, she always has understood exactly her challenges as a Democrat since she first ran in 2006. Emphasizing her native roots and love for Tucson, Giffords connects very well with people one-on-one. She also is relentless about fundraising, and the fivethirtyeight.com analysis shows she has the biggest lead in cash among all of the identified vulnerable Democrats.
Personally, I’ve been impressed with that district’s upstart campaign of Republican Jesse Kelly. He’s positioned himself well on the issues to take advantage of the anti-incumbent, anti-Democrat mood that appears to be bubbling up. His biggest problem has been convincing the Republican Party that he can overcome a lack of name identification to seriously threaten Giffords. He’s made some in-roads, but there are many Republicans still looking for a candidate better known to voters. State Sen. Jonathan Paton, R-Tucson, is frequently mentioned as a dream challenger.
The vice president is raising money today for one incumbent not included on that most-vulnerable list: Ann Kirkpatrick. The Congressional District 1 race is flying under the radar because Democrats have more registered voters and Kirkpatrick’s potential challengers haven’t raised much money, yet. But the district is quite conservative and Kirkpatrick won her first term in the fallout from former Rep. Rick Renzi’s criminal indictment for political corruption. There’s also this video where Kirkpatrick literally walked out of a meeting with her constituents. Expect that video to get a lot of air time and blogger references in the coming year.
My guess is Kirkpatrick will be at least as vulnerable as Mitchell and Giffords next year.
Posted in: Congress • Election issues • Ann Kirkpatrick • fivethirtyeight.com • Gabrielle Giffords • Harry Mitchell • Joe Biden • Rick Renzi | 11 Comments »
November 10th, 2009, 10:31 am by Le Templar
 Rep. Doug Quelland/Cronkite News Service
Rep. Doug Quelland, R-Phoenix, lost his administrative appeal Monday to stop the Arizona Clean Elections Commission from removing him from office. Once the commission acts on the ruling of the administrative law judge, Quelland can then go to Superior Court to make his case.
Quelland is accused of spending up to $15,000 of his own money last year in his bid for a House seat, while also taking public campaign funds. State law requires that publicly funded candidates who spend more than 10 percent beyond the state-imposed limits must be removed from office.
Former Rep. David Burnell Smith, R-Carefree, faced similar accusations in 2005. He tried to argue that the Clean Elections commission didn’t have the authority under the state constitution to remove him. But the courts rejected his plea and he became the first lawmaker in the country to lose his job because of campaign finance violations.
The immediate question will be if the courts can fast enough to determine Quelland’s status before the Legislature returns for its regular session in January? Or could Quelland represent his district and possibly vote on bills when the law says he shouldn’t be there at all?
Posted in: Arizona Legislature • Arizona government • Election issues • Citizens Clean Elections Commission • David Burnell Smith • Doug Quelland | 1 Comment »
November 6th, 2009, 11:34 am by Le Templar
Arizona Attorney General Terry Goddard let the world know this morning via Twitter that he’s going to formally take steps toward running for governor:
“Today I will file papers to explore running for Governor. AZ needs strong leadership focused on jobs & ending partisan gridlock”
It’s been known for some time that Goddard, a former mayor of Phoenix, planned to make another bid for the post after losing out to Republican Fife Symington in 1990 and to Democrat Eddie Basha in the 1994 primary. Goddard is even considered an early frontrunner and likely will be the only major Democratic candidate to enter the race.
He will be “exploring” until at least mid-January to avoid triggering Arizona’s “resign to run” law. However, some people believe the attorney general already has violated it and should have resigned his current job already.
Goddard’s announcement comes less than 12 hours after the Republican incumbent, Jan Brewer, formally entered the race. The timing likely isn’t a coincidence.
Note: This post has been corrected to reflect the accurate information about Goddard’s past campaigns.
Posted in: Congress • Election issues • Governor • Journalism • 2010 elections • Jan Brewer • Terry Goddard | 1 Comment »
November 5th, 2009, 2:13 pm by Le Templar
Gov. Jan Brewer filed her paperwork today and will formally announce tonight that she’s running in 2010. So it might not have been the best day for Republican challenger Vernon Parker to post his first video message of the campaign. (Yes, ignore the “exploratory committee” nonsense. Parker definitely is in the race at this point). But as you can see below, the video does a nice job of succinctly telling Parker’s personal story. Since Parker isn’t well-known outside of Paradise Valley (where he’s mayor), this general introduction definitely is needed. Be sure to look for the quick photo of a younger Parker with a mustache and a bola tie. He’s definitely stepped up his professional image as he has matured.
Posted in: Election issues • Governor • 2010 elections • Jan Brewer • Vernon Parker | Post a Comment »
November 4th, 2009, 3:33 pm by Le Templar
 Gov. Jan Brewer/Capitol Media Services
The Arizona Guardian is reporting this afternoon that Gov. Jan Brewer will announce Thursday night in Glendale that she’s running for election next year. Brewer has been quiet for months about her plans, and relatively poor polling numbers has had many people speculating that she would just serve out the current term. Brewer moved up from secretary of state in January after former Gov. Janet Napolitano become secretary of Homeland Security.
Brewer’s decision means other Republicans – John Munger, Vernon Parker and possibly Dean Martin — will have to campaign against her and not just against the expected Democratic nominee, Terry Goddard. Brewer has an uphill climb, but she never has lost an election, including her two victories for in statewide elections. A lot of experience comes with a track record like that could overcome the current political climate.
Posted in: Election issues • 2010 elections • Arizona Guardian • Dean Martin • Jan Brewer • John Munger • Vernon Parker | 1 Comment »
October 20th, 2009, 11:33 am by Le Templar
 Kevin Tyne, right, the governor's chief of staff will leave the office in three weeks after intense, behind-the-scenes criticism of his management style/Capitol Media Serices file photo.
Gov. Jan Brewer has finally given in to the growing political pressure to replace her closest adviser. Chief of staff Kevin Tyne will leave the state Capitol in three weeks to take a post with the Republican Governors Administration, Brewer announced on her Facebook page this morning. (Various media outlets starting blogging and tweeting about Tyne’s pending departure an hour earlier.) His replacement will be deputy chief of staff Eileen Klein. Brewer’s announcement came a few hours before Brewer is scheduled to meet with House Speaker Kirk Adams, R-Mesa, and Senate President Bob Burns, R-Peoria, to plan a possible November special session to address a $1.5 billion budget deficit.
Tyne has been at Brewer’s side for years, going back to her days as a Maricopa County supervisor. He was quite as effective as her deputy when Brewer was secretary of state. So he was the natural choice to take on the day-to-day chores of managing Brewer’s administration when she became governor in January.
But Tyne has been a focus of lots of criticism behind-the-scenes this year. As the Arizona Guardian recently reported (story is subscription-only), Tyne has received much of the blame for Brewer’s challenges in dealing with a Legislature controlled by her own party. Lawmakers claimed they were frequently blindsided by Brewer’s positions and maneuvering on budget issues.
As I read the complaints (and I have heard my share from Capitol sources), Tyne became a target partly because Brewer was once an accomplished state senator. Many political insiders can’t imagine she has forgotten that much since her time in the legislative halls. So if Brewer’s administration can’t get things done, it must be Tyne’s fault as her right hand, so the thinking seems to go. That’s point of view gets a boost with Klein moving up. She is a former chief of staff for the state House who has her own reputation for being tough but is among the most knowledgeable anywhere about the details of the state budget.
But Brewer is loyal to her friends and allies. Until today, she gave every indication she was going to keep Tyne despite the private efforts to push him out. It’s possible that Tyne is being a good soldier and he volunteered to step aside to help Brewer repair her relations with Republican lawmakers.
There’s also been some speculation this is a sign that Brewer will run for election next year. I wouldn’t go that far. Brewer has done almost nothing to prepare for a tough statewide primary, and she’s quickly running out of time to get a campaign organization off the ground.
UPDATE: Jan Brewer’s longtime public relations firm and campaign managers at HighGround of Phoenix have issued a statement coming to Kevin Tyne’s defense. Key quote: “It shouldn’t be a surprise today that politicos will attempt to assign blame to Kevin Tyne, but the reality is that Kevin was an equal to any Chief of Staff who has served any previous Arizona Governor.”
Posted in: Arizona Legislature • Arizona government • Election issues • Governor • Eileen Klein • Jan Brewer • Kevin Tyne • Republican Governors Association • state budget | 1 Comment »
October 14th, 2009, 10:57 am by Le Templar
 Mark Flatten/Tribune file
If Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon and Maricopa County Supervisor Mary Rose Wilcox think they can just ignore the new investigative writer for the Goldwater Institute, then they have forgotten who Mark Flatten is. Especially Wilcox, as Flatten seems to clearly prove she used her political connections to land and keep a lucrative restaurant contract at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, and she violated federal rules while doing so.
Unlike Gordon and Wilcox, I haven’t forgotten Flatten. He was one of the best investigative journalists in the state during his years with the East Valley Tribune, and possibly one of Arizona’s best ever. He’s methodical, relentless and has amazing organizational skills. And he never allows an investigative report to be published until he’s sure he has covered all of the angles.
But given the uncertain future of the Tribune, Flatten decided this summer to strike out on a new venture. In an evolution from the traditional model of political think tanks, the Goldwater Institute hired Flatten to continue pursuing his craft which includes following the ethical tenets of journalism. But many Arizona journalists have wondered if Flatten really would have the freedom to objectively pursue a story to its logical conclusion, or would the Goldwater Institute subtly (or overtly) coerce Flatten’s writing to fit the institute’s libertarian outlook.
I think there’s some evidence for both points of view in Flatten’s first report for the institute — a detailed looked at the process of providing access to Sky Harbor concessions contracts for minority-owned and disadvantaged businesses. Goldwater Institute was an early advocate for a proposed state law that would end race-based preferences in government contracts and other policies. Flatten makes clear the proposed law, which the Legislature has asked state voters to consider in November 2010, played some role in inspiring his report.
But Flatten’s investigative work also shines through, especially when it comes to Wilcox. In a nutshell, Flatten reports Wilcox got a sweetheart deal to gain 30 percent ownership of a Chili’s restaurant at Sky Harbor. The master airport contractor who owns 70 percent of the restaurant used the fact that Wilcox is a Hispanic woman to help the contractor meet Phoenix’s minority-ownership rules. In return, Wilcox didn’t have put any money into the business for her 30 percent and she doesn’t have any clearly defined role in operating the restaurant, both of which are a violation of rules from the Federal Aviation Administration, Flatten reported.
Wilcox flat-out refused to answer any questions from Flatten, claiming he was delving into a private business matter. Huh? Wilcox is making money from a taxpayer-funded airport that’s heavily regulated by various governments, and she’s an long-time elected public servant. But she wants to claim privacy? Ridiculous.
Gordon and most administrators at the airport refused substantive interviews with Flatten as well. That might possibly might make more sense, as the Goldwater Institute has been suing that city in a separate, high-profile case. To Gordon’s credit, he gave definite, if brief, answers when Flatten tracked him down for a walking hallway interview. (”No. No, sir,” was about Gordon had to say.)
But Flatten refused to allow those closed doors to stop him. He dug through contracts, email and thousands of other public records to get the story. The great thing about the Internet is some of the most important records are posted with links embedded right into the Goldwater Institute report. So we don’t just have to take Flatten’s word on what he found, we can read the evidence for ourselves.
We continue to miss Flatten here at the Tribune. But it’s great to see that he’s still serving the public by uncovering flaws and undue political influence in government.
Posted in: Election issues • Journalism • Libertarian values • Maricopa County • Phoenix • Public records • Goldwater Institute • Mary Rose Wilcox • Phil Gordon • Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport | 5 Comments »
October 9th, 2009, 2:32 pm by Le Templar
 John Munger of Tucson (right), a Republican candidate for governor, speaks with reporters Thursday night about his endorsement from former Gov. Fife Symington (left)/Photo by Capitol Media Services.
A common trait in people who run for public office is a high level of self-confidence. Those who pull it off well act as leaders; those who don’t just act with arrogance. I’m still trying to figure out which camp John Munger belongs to a few hours after he told me this:
“If I had been governor last year, we would not have a budget deficit today.”
Munger, a Tucson lawyer and co-founder of the Commerce Bank of Arizona, was wrapping up a weeklong tour of the state after formally entering the Republican primary for governor in 2010. He was kind enough to stop by the Tribune office for about 45 minutes this morning to speak face-to-face about his candidacy. Clearly energized by the endorsement Thursday night from former Gov. Fife Symington, Munger said he could quickly resolve the state’s spending problems without the sales tax proposal from the current governor, Jan Brewer, and without “below the bone” budget cuts that would seem to be required if taxes aren’t raised.
In short, Munger is convinced the governor and state Legislature could kick-start the economy and thus rebuild the state treasury. He wants to pursue initiatives that conservatives and libertarians should love, including:
- Tear down the regulatory burdens that prevent businesses from expanding or relocating here. Munger’s promise: Most projects would receive state approval within 30 days. “I have clients in my little law firm that could create 500 to 1,000 jobs overnight if they just could get their projects approved.”
- Lower the corporate income tax and wipe out the property tax on business personal property. “Those aren’t a big part of the budget, but they are important to businesses who are making decisions about the future.”
- Get new highway construction underway with privately funded but state-owned toll roads. “We could get a $20 billion investment just for (an expanded) freeway from Phoenix to Flagstaff.”
Those are all fine ideas, great even. But they couldn’t possibly overcome a $3 billion to $4 billion budget deficit in the near future, could they? Munger insists they would, but most people at the state Capitol can’t imagine that because they are career politicians with too little experience in the business world. “It’s doable if we harness the power of the free enterprise system.”
Munger has a wealth of concrete ideas about what Arizona should be doing to address immediate problems and long-term challenges. I was impressed with his recent suggestions for state-based health care reform. He wants to convince investors to build a desalinization plant off of the Sea of Cortez to pipe water into the state. He wants to decentralize the state K-12 education by empowering school principals to make most budget decisions, getting rid of school district administrators, and using the savings to dramatically raise salaries for quality teachers.
Munger is probably right that current political trends in the state Legislature means he would have a Republican majority eager to embrace his agenda. But he has to get elected first.
On that subject, Munger says he’s clearly the best candidate for Republicans to send against Terry Goddard or any other Democratic candidate. Munger boldly predicted his four decades in Tucson would translate into more votes than Goddard in Pima County (usually viewed as tilting Democrat), and he would easily rally Republican voters in Maricopa County (where 58 percent of Arizona’s electorate live). “It’s my race to lose.”
Like I said, Munger is either a real leader, or is really arrogant. I can’t wait to find out which is true.
Posted in: Arizona Legislature • Arizona government • Election issues • Governor • 2010 elections • Jan Brewer • John Munger • Sea of Cortez • state budget | 3 Comments »
October 8th, 2009, 5:11 pm by Le Templar
Other places reported earlier today, but the John Munger’s campaign for governor just make it official that Fife Symington isn’t going to run for governor again after all and has endorsed Munger instead.
That dashes the hopes of those looking for history to repeat itself. And it gives Munger an early anchor to start chasing support of Arizona’s GOP establishment (Although the incumbent, Jan Brewer, might have something to say about that). Of course, other candidates such as Vernon Parker and Robert Graham already are casting themselves as outsiders who can bring fresh ideas to the governor’s office.
But in primary race where private fundraising will be more important than in 2006, any successful candidate will have to gather a strong line-up of Republican insiders.
Posted in: Election issues • Governor • 2010 elections • Fife Symington • Jan Brewer • John Graham • John Munger • Vernon Parker | Post a Comment »
October 5th, 2009, 5:06 pm by Le Templar
 Jason Rose (right) is the public relations specialist/political strategist who is in charge of attracting public attention to the likely campaign for governor of Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker (left).
Now that Republican Vernon Parker is in the race for governor (almost), we in the media received today the first of what could be daily missives from his press agent, Scottsdale political provocateur Jason Rose. Typically, a candidate or business hires Rose’s PR firm to make a big public splash and then to keep the spotlight burning, as Rose and Co. specialize in attention-grabbing headlines and other tactics almost guaranteed to generate publicity — even though some of it makes the intended audience go “what the heck?” or “Ewwww!”
But what Rose is really good at is framing talking points and campaign slogans with instant emotional appeal that might, or might not, stand up to critical examination.
Today’s news release is an example of this. Parker (via Rose) wants to tap into widespread Republican opposition to Gov. Jan Brewer’s proposed temporary sales tax increase. Parker’s statement says Brewer wants to raise this tax before even reducing her own staff:
“Many Arizonans are suffering. Many state agencies are cutting. The Governor’s Office should do the same. I will,” Parker said. “Should I be fortunate enough to be elected Governor I would make these necessary cuts on Day One.”
Parker goes on to say, as Paradise Valley mayor, he has cut the town’s spending by 25 percent and the budget for mayor and Town Council by 54 percent. What Parker doesn’t mention is any reference to what those cuts were or how they might translate to the governor’s office. It’s important to note that the Paradise Valley mayor and council combined spent $83,108 last year and will spend $50,175 this year, a far cry from the $7.6 million set aside for the governor’s office this year.
Also, Parker’s math is a little fuzzy. Paradise Valley’s tax revenues are projected to be down by 25 percent from when Parker became mayor in June 2008 ($21.9 million to $16.3 million). But town operations will spend 16.4 percent less ($19.5 million to $16.3 million). The spending-to-revenue gap of nearly 9 percent will be filled with cash-on-hand saved from past tax collections. A similar savings account for the state was drained dry in January.
Parker also doesn’t mention a single position in the governor’s office that he would eliminate or any specific cost savings he would pursue.
Oddly enough, Parker (via Rose) could have made a stronger statement simply by highlighting the budget numbers for the governor’s office, which have risen by nearly $210,000 from last year as explained by the Legislature’s official budget summary. This stands in contrast with the state agencies that Brewer oversees, which have undergone at least three rounds of budget reductions and have been asked to prepare for another 15 to 20 percent in cuts mid-year. Parker’s news release includes a web link to the governor’s office budget, but fails to note the increase in spending.
UPDATE: Brewer’s press secretary, Paul Senseman, told me by email Wednesday morning that the governor’s office needed additional staffing so far this year to comply with tracking and auditing requirements for use of federal stimulus funds. But Senseman added Brewer plans to include mid-year cuts to her office when she sends new budget proposals to the Legislature in the near future.
Posted in: Arizona Legislature • Arizona government • Election issues • Governor • Jan Brewer • Jason Rose • Vernon Parker | 2 Comments »
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