Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano keeps a close eye on the “river” during a friendly game of poker on Veterans Day 2008 at the Arizona State Veterans Home. (Photo by Capitol Media Services)

The future of Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano remains quite as a mystery, as President-elect Barack Obama hasn’t announced any Cabinet-level appointments yet. Numerous media reports say Napolitano is a leading contender for attorney general or homeland security. But some Arizona Democrats are openly saying Napolitano could turn down any offers to join the Obama administration, to avoid elevating Secretary of State Jan Brewer to the governor’s office.

Even if Napolitano doesn’t leave Phoenix for Washington, she has firmly established herself as a national-level politician that bodes well for her future. Her successful efforts since 2003 to get noticed by both print and television news operations meant recent profiles by the New York Times and Washington Post carry a tone that Napolitano already is a known quantity. And then there was that parody of Napolitano on Saturday Night Live last weekend. (Sorry, no video link as of this post, as SNL didn’t rush to put a link on its Web site and NBC already has filed copyright challenges at YouTube to other clips from the show). When Hollywood comedy writers pick out someone new to mock, that person has arrived in some fashion.

UPDATE: Azfamily.com has embedded the key part of the SNL video as part of a news story from KTVK-TV (Channel 3). Hat tip to Eye on the Ninth Floor.

Barrett Marson

Tribune writer Mary K. Reinhart’s in-depth profile Sunday of Kirk Adams, the next speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives, revealed the answer to a question being tossed around by journalists and public relations officials alike: Is Barrett Marson in or out as the spokesman for House Republicans? Marson won’t be part of the new administration as Adams looks to replace all of the top staff members from the Jim Weiers administration.

“We’re making a clean break,” Adams told Reinhart. ”This is a good time, especially for Republicans.”

Marson has been the House communications director for more than three years, serving as Weiers’ voice to the media and writing press releases for other House Republicans as well. Marson could be annoyingly aggressive as he tried to get traditional media and bloggers to cover an issue that he believed made his bosses look good or would embarrass Weiers’ most potent foe — Gov. Janet Napolitano. But Marson is generally well-liked for his sense of humor, and always has respected the role of journalists in the politcal system even when some lawmakers didn’t. He also gained extra attention earlier this year during his one-on-one debates with state Democratic Party spokeswoman Emily DeRose on “Horizon,” the local news issues PBS show.

Still, elected leaders who defeat an incumbent, as Adams did with Weiers, typically want new key advisors who don’t have close ties to the prior administration.

A former award-winning print reporter, Marson cover state politics for several years for the Tribune and then the Arizona Daily Star. In 2001, he broke the story of then-Gov. Jane Dee Hull’s frequent weekend flights in a state-owned airplane to stay at her cabin retreat in the White Mountains. That story helped to shape a rather negative image of Hull during her final two years in office.

REP. KIRK ADAMS SPEAKS WITH STATE CAPITOL REPORTERS THURSDAY AFTER BEING SELECTED BY FELLOW REPUBLICANS TO BE THE NEW HOUSE SPEAKER (Photo by Capitol Media Services).

A fair number of people were unimpressed when I wrote a few weeks ago about Rep. Kirk Adams, R-Mesa, seeking to unseat Rep. Jim Weiers, R-Phoenix, as speaker of the state House of Representatives. Few outsiders I talked to gave Adams any realistic chance of winning the House’s top leadership post, unless Republicans suffered a bloodbath in Tuesday’s election.

Republicans actually did better than expected Tuesday, and they have expanded the number of House seats they control. But Capitol Media Services is reporting that Adams defeated Weiers anyway today in a private meeting of incoming Republican House members.

Among the people who should be thrilled by this news is Gov. Janet Napolitano. She and Weiers have developed a rather intense dislike of one another during her six years in office. Napolitano and her Democratic allies tried both in 2006 and this year to knock Weiers out of the House with candidate challenges in his home district. But they failed.

While Adams isn’t any closer to Napolitano philosophically, he’s more likely to have an on-going working relationship with her — if she doesn’t leave Arizona for Washington, D.C., for a post in Barack Obama’s presidential administration.

Here’s Capitol Media Services’ first report:

House Republicans ousted speaker Jim Weiers on Thursday, choosing a Mesa lawmaker who promised a more effective effort to enact `”good Republican policy.” And that, said Kirk Adams, means adopting Republican budgets — budgets that have less spending and are actually balanced against revenues, “not one that has a $1.2 billion hole in the moment that it’s passed.”
Adams said he believes he — and the other Republicans — have a mandate from voters to pursue those policies by virtue of the fact that it appears that the GOP picked up two seats in the 60-member chamber. That gives them a 35-25 edge over Democrats. The lifelong Arizona resident said he is not planning to exclude the minority Democrats.
“They certainly should have a voice and it should be an open and transparent process,” he said.
“It should be respectful of everybody’s opinion,” Adams continued. “But at the end of the day, when we vote on those
bills or we vote on the budget, we also need to respect the will of the voters.”
And Adams said that shift occurred “in a year, in a country, where it wasn’t a good year for Republicans anywhere else, except perhaps in the Arizona Legislature.”

GOV. JANET NAPOLITANO SPOKE IN JANUARY ON BEHALF OF FELLOW DEMOCRAT BARACK OBAMA, WHO IS NOW PRESIDENT-ELECT (Capitol Media Services file photo).

The countdown clock has begun on how long it takes President-Elect Barack Obama to name Arizona’s own Gov. Janet Napolitano to a Cabinet post. Unlike the presidential race of 2004, Napolitano backed a Democrat relatively early in this year’s primary season and her gamble has paid off. Just about everyone involved in Arizona politics expects Napolitano to be tabbed for a prominent position such as attorney general or homeland security secretary.

My only hestitation is Napolitano didn’t deliver Arizona to Obama either in the primaries or the general election. In fact, Sen. John McCain won his home state by a larger-than-expected margin. So there might be less pressure on Obama to offer Napolitano a critical position in his administration.

On the other hand, given that Arizona’s governor will face a nightmarish budget and a more conservative, Republican-controlled Legislature next year, Napolitano might be happy to accept even an obscure post in Washington, D.C.

Forget what’s happening in Washington. Arizonans should be more focused on the escalating budget crisis right in our own backyard. Gov. Janet Napolitano is hoping (praying? tossing pennies into wishing wells?) that the funding shortfall for the 3-month-old fiscal year will be only $320 million, but is willing to consider a worst-case scenario of $850 milllion. That’s after Napolitano and the Legislature adopted a budget in late June that erased a shortfall predicted at the time to be $1.9 billion.

However, state lawmakers were told Tuesday during a special briefing that tax revenues appear to coming in at about $100 million less than state spending every month. That means the potential deficit will surge past Napolitano’s optimistic projection by, oh, well, this Monday.

Unlike a year ago, Napolitano appears to understand the scope and the depth of the budget crisis. She sounds like she’s riding hard on state agencies to limit expenses, although it would easier to see that if her budget office could produce some detailed numbers to demonstrate concrete savings. She’s also working on some rather inventive ideas, such as selling or leasing the Arizona Lottery to a private operator and accepting a chunk of cash from tobacco companies now, in exchange for reducing their overall payments under the 1999 master tobacco settlement.

But those solutions are temporary at best, providing only a one-time infusion of cash. The whole purpose of Wednesday’s special meeting for lawmakers and legislative candidates was to drive home the point that as bad as things are right now, they probably will get worse in 2009. Private economist Elliott Pollack repeated his recent presentation to state business leaders with a blizzard of facts about the economic slowdown and he predicted a real recovery won’t reach Arizona probably until 2011.

The real challenge, according to top legislative budget analyst Richard Stavneak, is Napolitano and the Legislature have crafted a $10.7 billion general fund budget, but the economy seems to be able to only support spending on a stable basis at $8.7 billlion.

The state has $120 million in savings, and then the money tree is pretty close to leafless for this year and next. And more than half of the budget (primarily K-12 education and health care spending) can’t be touched by lawmakers because they are protected by voter-approved formulas and spending mandates. If lawmakers immediately adopted a 20 percent budget cut for every state agency that they do have say over, it would save only $400 million, Stavneak said. And such cuts would have to include state prisons, the Department of Public Safety, universities and community colleges.

That’s why Sen. Thayer Verschoor, R-Gilbert, said Wednesday the Legislature should be looking at a special statewide election as soon as January to ask voters for relief from the mandates. Lawmakers likely would seek permission to temporarily cut back on state spending for school districts and to benefits provided by AHCCCS.

The only other route out of the crisis would be higher taxes. It’s pretty much guaranteed that the temporary suspension of the business personal property tax will be allowed to expire — bringing in $250 million a year starting in 2010. But there likely won’t be any other serious tax proposals, despite complaints from some Democrats and special interest groups, unless or until Napolitano decides to throw her political capital behind such an unpopular move.

I learned this morning that the conspicuous absence of House Speaker Jim Weiers, R-Ariz., from a commission created by Gov. Janet Napolitano to plan Arizona’s centennial celebration was his choice, not the governor’s. In fact, Weiers couldn’t bother to return repeated phone calls from Napolitano’s office inviting him to join the commission as did all living former governors, Senate President Tim Bee, R-Tucson, Senate Minority Leader Marsha Arzberger, D-Willcox, and House Minority Leader Phil Lopes, D-Tucson.

I tried to speak with spokespeople for both Napolitano and Weiers before writing my original blog item, but they didn’t return my phone call until after it was posted. This morning, House Republican spokesman Barrett Marson said Weiers didn’t see any point to serving on the governor’s commission as another already existed. I believe Marson is referring to one or more committees working with the state Historical Advisory Commission, which previously was designated by law to coordinate planning for the celebration of the state’s 100th birthday.

“I don’t think we need two agencies to do one job,” Marson said.

Hmm, Napolitano would have had an opportunity to explain why she was creating a new, more high-profile group to take the lead, if only Weiers had taken her phone call. One important reason, as I mentioned in my previous post, is the state needs to raise private cash quickly because of the state’s budget problems. If Napolitano can’t do it with the group of people she has assembled for her centennial commission, I’m not sure it can be done.

Weiers might have a point about Napolitano bypassing the existing government infrastructure (which she previously supported) and creating something new that she has more control over. But Weiers is supposed to be a state leader, and he comes off as petulant and petty when he couldn’t take five minutes to discuss the issue with the governor or her staff.

 
         HOUSE SPEAKER JIM WEIERS                               GOV. JANET NAPOLITANO

UPDATE: I have learned that Gov. Janet Napolitano tried to House Speaker Jim Weiers to join her new centennial commission, but Weiers ignored several phone calls from her office. You can read more about it at new blog post here.

I know there’s a lot of animosity between Gov. Janet Napolitano and Arizona House Speaker Jim Weiers, but I had no idea it went this deep. The governor’s office sent out a news release Monday explaining that back in June, Napolitano created a special commission to oversee the planning for Arizona’s centennial in 2012.

As you would expect, the commission includes a rich collection of prominent Arizona names such as all of the living former governors and Sen. Jon Kyl. (Arizona’s senior U.S. senator is missing. Perhaps he’s too busy doing something else, a task that Napolitano hopes he fails at.) 

The list also includes the top leaders of this year’s Arizona Legislature from both parties, except for Weiers. Since Napolitano has taken the title of commission co-chairwoman, I guess she couldn’t stand the idea of sharing even a smidge of the spotlight and attention with one of her biggest critics. Even for Arizona’s one and only 100th birthday party.

That’s a shame, too, as Napolitano and company will need every bit of help they can get to raise private money to put on a decent show in less than three years. The state budget is awash in red ink and probably will be for awhile. The only cash that’s going to be available for a birthday bash to be proud of will have to come from the private sector.

That’s why Napolitano has stacked the commission with lots of business allies, and she will lean on them to bring in money from their own companies and from other businesses in their respective circles. There’s nothing wrong with that. It’s how other states have celebrated their centennials and it’s certainly better than leaving taxpayers with an even bigger fiscal hangover.

But Weiers has lots of business allies as well, and he knows how to twist arms to raise money for the right cause. Napolitano, and the rest of state, likely will regret it later if Weiers isn’t actively involved with planning the centennial.

During the preliminaries for the final night of the Democratic National Convention, Gov. Janet Napolitano just appeared with Tom Brokaw on MSNBC. Unfortunately for the governor, the interview was inside Invesco Field at Mile High, and Napolitano basically had to shout into her television microphone to be heard above Sheryl Crow performing on the main stage where Barack Obama will speak in a while.

The best moment of Napolitano’s brief appearance was when she didn’t take the bait from Brokaw and predict an Arizona win for Obama over home state Sen. John McCain.

“We’re going to work hard for every vote and give (McCain) a run for his money,” Napolitnao wisely said instead.

GOV. JANET NAPOLITANO SPEAKS AT THE DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION TUESDAY NIGHT. (Photo by The Associated Press)

If you didn’t watch Gov. Janet Napolitano’s performance in Denver last night, you’ve probably at least seen or heard snippets on local newscasts by now. Napolitano went on stage about 30 minutes earlier than expected, so I had to listen to her on the radio while driving home. She was competent and effective, but not particularly exciting. She relied on an obvious joke about continuing an Arizona political tradition for failed presidential bids by home state candidates. Her theme about John McCain being out of touch on the country’s economic condition is a critical message for Democrats this year, and she seemed to touch on all of the keystones.

But Arizona Secretary of State Jan Brewer did have a Republican response:

“It’s always good to see an Arizona Governor talking about our state on the national stage, but she conveniently left out the circumstances of our state’s billion dollar budget deficit. The fact is that Barack Obama’s celebrity status is not going to help Arizonans, or any Americans, at all. We don’t need his higher taxes, more government spending, and his desire to separate us from the rest of the global economy.”

This was Napolitano’s third speech to a Democratic National Convention. As Valley TV news anchor John Hook of Fox 10 noted before the speech, Napolitano’s time slot has gotten better with each appearance — a sign of her steadily rising influence nationally. In fact, Napolitano was this year’s chairwoman of the platform writing committee. That’s work rather important to party insiders but usually forgotten by the general public once the party nominee gives his acceptance speech and moves into the fall campaign.

You can watch Napolitano’s entire speech here.

Kevin Rogers (original photo at azfb.org)

   I’ve been out of the office on vacation for a week or so, and I’ve spent some time this weekend trying to catch up on my Tribune reading. One item to catch my eye was in Sunday’s Perspective section by Kevin Rogers, president of the Arizona Farm Bureau.
A plain-spoken, straight-forward kind of guy, Rogers calls attention to a concern of huge importance that I haven’t seen reported anywhere else: the Legislature and the governor granted unfettered power to six state agencies to raise their fees to help resolve a potential $2 billion deficit. I fundamentally agree with Rogers’ conclusions.
   But I was stopped cold by this paragraph:
   “Some of our elected officials are using their taxing power while telling us they are not raising taxes. It’s a perfect scheme, as they can say the budget was balanced with no new taxes. Does this conjure up an image of Pontius Pilate washing his hands of responsibility?”
   Uhm, did Rogers really compare adoption of the state budget to the crucifixion of Jesus?
   Metaphors are valuable writing and debate techniques. But when it comes to politics, Americans have an unfortunate tendency to make wholly inappropriate connections. For the shock value, I guess, in an attempt to be heard over the ever-growing clamor created by our technological advances.
   Want others to view a leader’s actions as evil? Compare whatever they have done to Adolph Hitler and Nazi Germany, ignoring whole magnitudes of horror that usually separates a local politician’s vote or office management from the Holocaust.
   The Tribune Editorial Board talks frequently about tempering own our comparisons and trying to use realistic metaphors when making a point. But I’ll admit it’s hard to maintain perspective when it seems like everyone else wants to immediately drag the most earth-shaking events from human history into everyday moments.