ARIZONA GOV. JANET NAPOLITANO (left) AND JAN BREWER, THE NEXT CHIEF OF STATE? (Capitol Media Services file photo)

The national media are acting like they are engaged in a massive competition to get the first news scoop on specific, top-level appointments to the incoming Barack Obama administration. But have you noticed the remarkable regularity in which these stories are coming to light? One person or office each day, with one media outlet posting the news first and then most of the other print and broadcasters quickly confirming the rumor with two or more anonymous sources.

My guess is the Obama team is deliberating leaking names and positions on a set schedule. Each potential appointment gets around 24 hours of focused news attention, providing an opportunity for key lawmakers, Washington insiders and the public at large to react to the choice without Obama publicly putting his credibility on the line. If some problem with the potential nominee’s background emerges that the transition team didn’t uncover, another person’s name will suddenly pop up and the previous candidate will be dismissed as unfounded speculation by the media.

Pretty clever, actually, if you think about it.

Granted, Wednesday night’s news that Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano is the leading contender to be secretary of Homeland Security came out only several hours after former Sen. Tom Daschle was “rumored” to be the choice for Health and Human Services. But that could be easily explained as a slip up in timing, with the Obama transition team intending for the public to learn about Napolitano this morning.

Let’s see if this pattern continues for the next few days, shall we?

Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano keeps a close eye on the “river” during a friendly game of poker on Veterans Day 2008 at the Arizona State Veterans Home. (Photo by Capitol Media Services)

The future of Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano remains quite as a mystery, as President-elect Barack Obama hasn’t announced any Cabinet-level appointments yet. Numerous media reports say Napolitano is a leading contender for attorney general or homeland security. But some Arizona Democrats are openly saying Napolitano could turn down any offers to join the Obama administration, to avoid elevating Secretary of State Jan Brewer to the governor’s office.

Even if Napolitano doesn’t leave Phoenix for Washington, she has firmly established herself as a national-level politician that bodes well for her future. Her successful efforts since 2003 to get noticed by both print and television news operations meant recent profiles by the New York Times and Washington Post carry a tone that Napolitano already is a known quantity. And then there was that parody of Napolitano on Saturday Night Live last weekend. (Sorry, no video link as of this post, as SNL didn’t rush to put a link on its Web site and NBC already has filed copyright challenges at YouTube to other clips from the show). When Hollywood comedy writers pick out someone new to mock, that person has arrived in some fashion.

UPDATE: Azfamily.com has embedded the key part of the SNL video as part of a news story from KTVK-TV (Channel 3). Hat tip to Eye on the Ninth Floor.

I am surprised I haven’t read more this week about how much Barack Obama owes his victory in the presidential race to Howard Dean, chairman of the Democratic National Committee. Sure, Obama has charisma, eloquence and a message of hope on his side. But Dean had the vision of how to manage a national campaign involving thousands of ego-driven politicians and prickly volunteers that prepared much of the ground for Obama to walk.

Many Americans remember the former Vermont governor only for the “Iowa scream” that seemed to single-handedly derail his 2004 bid for president (Not true, but that’s how a lot of people recall it). But in that campaign, Dean pioneered a lot of the Internet fund-raising techniques that Obama mastered this year to break all money records for a presidential election.

After Dean took charge of DNC in February 2005, he made two promises: Democrats would take control of Congress in the 2006 elections and the White House in 2008. He said that would be possible only by challenging Republicans directly in traditionally “red” states on issues such as health care, high-paying jobs and alternative energy. He rebuilt the DNC’s spending machine to direct more resources into every state and to specifically target the “Intermountain West” (from Montana to Nevada) because changing demographics meant new voters would be more likely to support Democrats. 

In 2006, Dean guided the national party to identify six issues of concern to the entire country and did a remarkable job of convincing individual Democrat candidates to use those issues as the themes of their campaigns. Of course, this strategy was the same concept as Newt Gingrich’s 1994 Contract with America that propelled Republicans into control of Congress for 12 years. The only difference was Dean didn’t try to force every Democrat candidate in every race to commit to the national party’s position on all six issues.

And Dean’s version worked just as effectively. While Democratic gains were expected in 2006 given the unpopularity of the Iraq war, few observers took seriously Dean’s goal of regaining both houses of Congress at once.

As of today, everything has worked out pretty much as Dean said it would, much to the chagrin of Republicans. Dean’s loss to John Kerry in the 2004 primaries might have been the best thing to happen for the Democratic Party since Bill Clinton.

GOV. JANET NAPOLITANO SPOKE IN JANUARY ON BEHALF OF FELLOW DEMOCRAT BARACK OBAMA, WHO IS NOW PRESIDENT-ELECT (Capitol Media Services file photo).

The countdown clock has begun on how long it takes President-Elect Barack Obama to name Arizona’s own Gov. Janet Napolitano to a Cabinet post. Unlike the presidential race of 2004, Napolitano backed a Democrat relatively early in this year’s primary season and her gamble has paid off. Just about everyone involved in Arizona politics expects Napolitano to be tabbed for a prominent position such as attorney general or homeland security secretary.

My only hestitation is Napolitano didn’t deliver Arizona to Obama either in the primaries or the general election. In fact, Sen. John McCain won his home state by a larger-than-expected margin. So there might be less pressure on Obama to offer Napolitano a critical position in his administration.

On the other hand, given that Arizona’s governor will face a nightmarish budget and a more conservative, Republican-controlled Legislature next year, Napolitano might be happy to accept even an obscure post in Washington, D.C.

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN AND CINDY MCCAIN BRING ELECTION DAY 2008 TO A CLOSE BEFORE SUPPORTERS TUESDAY NIGHT AT THE ARIZONA BILTMORE RESORT AND SPA. (AP Photo)

Arizona Sen. John McCain took the stage far too early Tuesday night for his Republican stalwarts, because it meant he was conceding defeat, and the presidency, to Illinois Sen. Barack Obama.

I hadn’t understood why the McCain campaign decided several weeks ago to build a special stage on an outside lawn at the Arizona Biltmore Resort and Spa. The resort has several large ballrooms that typically are used for such gatherings, and one such room indeed served as the election party headquarters for the evening.

But tonight, I realized that McCain was trying to keep pace with what the Obama campaign had planned for Chicago’s Grant Park. A unexpected victory for McCain would have meant quite a show under a pair of towering banners and two rows of sky-high spotlights in the colors of blue and yellow.

However, with the bad news flowing in all night, the McCain crowd was pretty deflated and didn’t fill the area that had been set aside to hear the senator in person.

McCain didn’t delay the pain when he came out with vice presidential running mate Sarah Palin and their respective spouses. The senator immediately told the crowd that “American people have spoken, and they have spoken clearly,” and that he had called Obama to congratulate the president-elect.

Later in the 10-minute concession address, McCain took on his supporters’ pain as his own, saying about the 2008 loss “the failure is mine, not yours,” and “I don’t know what else I could have done to win this election.”

The cheers from crowd (and occasional boo when McCain spoke graciously about Obama) turned into anger for some when McCain was finished, and several people at the back turned around to vent at the various TV reporters standing on risers behind them.

“You slimy bastards!” shouted one man who stood out among the mostly well-dressed audience in his blue-jean jacket and blue-jean pants. “You got what you wanted, Barack Obama!”

The same man immediately turned to his neighbor and pointed to a election button with Palin’s face on his chest, “2012, I promise you. 2012.”

MICHAEL O’NEIL

Longtime Valley political pollster Michael O’Neil has provided some analysis on the hundreds of national and state-by-state surveys on the presidential race and what they could mean for Tuesday’s election. His conclusion? John McCain’s only real chance of winning will be if young voters get overconfident, or get tired of standing on line, and don’t turn out in high numbers Tuesday. It’s young and first-time voters who are giving Barack Obama such an edge in several states that normally vote Republican including Indiana, Virginia and North Carolina.

As just about everyone expects young voters to break records Tuesday, O’Neil is giving McCain only a 10 percent chance of victory.

 (AP Photo)

If John McCain goes on to win this election, I believe pundits will point to tonight’s town-hall style debate as the starting point of his come-from-behind drive. McCain made from a huge jump up from the first debate in that he was more personable and human, serious when he needed to be, but he ably worked in some humor at several points. McCain also knew when to break the debate rules for a good cause, such as when he interrupted Tom Brokaw to quickly point out that Barack Obama had failed to address McCain’s earlier challenge of spelling out the financial penalties for failing to buy insurance under Obama’s health care plan.

On the other hand, Obama seemed to repeatedly break the rules simply to ramble on past the time limits, even after being indirectly admonished by Brokaw. Now, I will say Obama was more impressive tonight than I expected. He was generally comfortable in this format and eloquent. When Brokaw wouldn’t let Obama get in follow-up response during a discussion on tax policies, he effectively worked his thoughts in anyway as part of his answer to the next question about Social Security and Medicare.

But Obama spent much of the 90 minutes repeating the same phrases and attacks on McCain that Obama used in the last debate and in recent weeks on the campaign trail. McCain stood out a little more because he had several fresh things to say. He probably gave heart attacks to more than a few conservative Republicans when he opened with a commitment for the federal government to buy up every individual bad home mortgage in the country. But at least it was something different from the previous debate for viewers to chew on.

I thought McCain generally improved his performance on the economic crisis and other domestic matters. He sounded more thoughtful, instead of constantly repeating talking points. And he was darn impressive during the 20 or so minutes on foreign policy issues (Although, I would urge him to come up with new material when he talks about Russia’s Vladamir Putin).

Obama didn’t make any mistakes, so tonight’s debate might not make any difference in the election. But McCain gave undecided voters a slightly improved view than they’ve seen before, while Obama looked pretty much the same. That could make a difference if the election turns out to be close.

 (AP photo)

Sen. John McCain went through almost the entire debate Friday without a single mention of his days as a Vietnam POW. In fact, if the debate had ended after 90 minutes as advertised, that issue would have stayed off the stage. So maybe that’s why a Barack Obama-friendly audience in downtown Phoenix gave one of its loudest responses all night — a rolling, unified groan of disgust — when McCain managed to slip in a POW reference about five minutes into overtime.

I had already attended several election events this year around the Valley sponsored by the McCain campaign. So I decided to watch Friday’s debate from the Democratic perspective. The Obama campaign threw a viewing party outside its Arizona headquarters, a converted house that’s for sale at Roosevelt and Sixth streets. More than 130 folding chairs from the United Commercial and Food Workers union were set up in a parking lot behind the house. The campaign projected a live Web video stream from C-SPAN onto a second building facing Roosevelt. Within 30 minutes after the debate started, all of the chairs were full and more Obama fans were standing in a semi-circle behind them.

The crowd was strangely quiet through much of the debate, listening intently as Obama and McCain fired back and forth in a free-wheeling contest of which moderator Jim Lehrer lost nearly all control. Obama’s backers did loosen up with a few rounds of applause and the occasional cheer after Obama delivered some one-liners. But some people also weirdly cheered a couple of times after McCain repeated an Obama comment in order to bring home his own argument.

So, I expected a boisterous pep rally and instead attended a mostly studious affair. Ken Clark, a Democratic activist and former state lawmaker from Phoenix gave a great explanation as to why:

“It was thick, fiberous and chewy,” Clark said. “And I don’t mean that in a bad way. I don’t believe I have ever seen them get so in-depth in past presidential debates. They usually focus more on firing those zingers at each other.”

Clark was right. Obama needed to demonstrate he has command of a lot of different facts and ideas, and that he can think quickly and speak well without a Teleprompter. He succeeded, to the likely horror of many Republicans who have predicting for weeks that Obama would fall on his face in the debates.

Meanwhile, McCain went to Mississippi bristling with examples of where he has been involved in national and foreign affairs, and was determined to cram every one of them into the debate. The Democrats outside Obama’s Arizona headquarters tried to dismiss McCain’s experience as meaningless or too close to President Bush. But I though he did a great job of presenting his case to those middle-of-the-road voters expected to ultimately decide the Nov. 4 outcome.

All of this means I don’t believe there was a clear winner from Friday’s debate. I can’t wait to see and hear what other people think.

Meanwhile, the Obama campaign is planning another outdoor viewing party for the vice presidential debate on Thursday. I’ll say one thing, they had better figure out how to improve the video feed. The frequent freezes of the campaign’s Internet connection annoyed many in the audience, and I doubt next week’s crowd will be as patient as they were tonight. Democrats are eager to see Joe Biden tear into Sarah Palin. I wonder if she will manage to disappoint as many critics as Obama did tonight.

Hugh Downs, an East Valley resident and former host of ABC’s 20/20, broke his final tie to journalistic independence and has decided to support Democrat Barack Obama for president. The Obama campaign has scheduled a 3 p.m. news conference today at the Tempe campus of Arizona State University, where the school of communication is named after the TV legend. The campaign already has released a comment from him:

“I am proud to announce my support for Senator Barack Obama for
President.  At a time when our economy is faltering and our health care
system remains in crisis, we cannot afford four more years of the same
failed economic policies,” said Downs, 87. “Senator Obama has solid,
realistic plans to strengthen our economy, provide health care to every
American and create jobs across this great nation. Arizonans, like all
Americans, need the change that Barack Obama will bring to Washington.”

When Downs retired in 1999, he held a world record for the longest continuous appearence on network television. He started out in entertainment but transitioned into television news and came to reflect journalistic credibility similar to that of Walter Cronkite and other anchors of the main nightly news shows.

Downs had fallen somewhat from that perch with his slate of late-night informercials. But I have heard Downs speak a couple of times, including an appearence before the Arizona Senate a few years back, and I was impressed by his continued eloquence and insight driven by his perspective as an independent observer of events.

Endorsing Obama casts a partisan shadow over Downs’ stellar career, one that’s sure to inspire those who claim all journalists are liberal and subtly support Democrats in our work, whether or not we admit to it.