Dean Martin

Just in case some political watchers weren’t paying attention earlier this week when state Treasurer Dean Martin said he was thinking about running for governor next year, someone launched today a digital campaign to draft Martin into the race. So far, it’s all just talk, as Martin hasn’t created an exploratory committee or anything.

But Martin has been positioning himself for a possible bid since he was elected treasurer in 2006. If Janet Napolitano had served her entire second term, the governor’s office would have been a wide-open race in 2010. In a crowded field of Republican candidates, Martin’s name recognition, technology savvy and eager charisma could add up to a winning formula for the party nomination.

Martin’s calculus changed (at least for few months) after Napolitano’s resigned to join President Barack Obama’s cabinet. As a term-limited secretary of state, Jan Brewer already was a likely 2010 contender. Once she was elevated to governor, she had rarefied access to the mass media to keep her identity before voters. Combined with her extensive record of election success, Brewer was potentially unbeatable if she played her cards right.

Of course, politics and news events often work against the fortunes of incumbent politicians. An economy in shambles and a state budget awash in spending deficits left Brewer with a lot of bad policy choices. Her unwavering dedication to a proposed sales tax election has cost her support within the Republican Party, even if she believes it would be approved by voters in general.

Brewer has struggled to establish a comforting or commanding presence in public speeches, and she speaks far less frequently with the media than she could, which might leave her vulnerable among voters who don’t follow politics day-to-day. Meanwhile, the governor has shut down every attempt to ask her about the 2010 elections.

So some people are whispering that she might not want to run at all. And those whispers, whether accurate or whole-cloth fantasy, were bound to catch the ear of ambitious types such as Martin.

Martin’s main weaknesses: He doesn’t have an extensive statewide political network; and grassroots support will be critical in a primary that now will be held in late August (credit to Greg Patterson for that analysis). He also doesn’t have a signature issue that immediately captures the public imagination such as education or illegal immigration.

The X-factor: The recent death of Martin’s wife, Kerry, and newborn son, Austin. I have discovered an incredible amount of sympathy for him among people across the political spectrum, which could translate into votes. But only if Martin doesn’t appear to be using the personal tragedy to his political benefit.

Martin can run for treasurer again instead of entering the governor’s race. But he can’t wait too long to make a decision. As a prominent critic of Clean Elections who has challenged state campaign funding in court, he will have to rely on private support. And that means raising more than $2 million if he wants to be a serious challenger.

To read more about the potential candidates for governor next year, look for this weekend’s column by Tribune contributing writer Austin Hill.