Archive for the 'Jan Brewer' Tag
October 5th, 2009, 5:06 pm by Le Templar
 Jason Rose (right) is the public relations specialist/political strategist who is in charge of attracting public attention to the likely campaign for governor of Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker (left). Now that Republican Vernon Parker is in the race for governor (almost), we in the media received today the first of what could be daily missives from his press agent, Scottsdale political provocateur Jason Rose. Typically, a candidate or business hires Rose’s PR firm to make a big public splash and then to keep the spotlight burning, as Rose and Co. specialize in attention-grabbing headlines and other tactics almost guaranteed to generate publicity — even though some of it makes the intended audience go “what the heck?” or “Ewwww!”
But what Rose is really good at is framing talking points and campaign slogans with instant emotional appeal that might, or might not, stand up to critical examination.
Today’s news release is an example of this. Parker (via Rose) wants to tap into widespread Republican opposition to Gov. Jan Brewer’s proposed temporary sales tax increase. Parker’s statement says Brewer wants to raise this tax before even reducing her own staff:
“Many Arizonans are suffering. Many state agencies are cutting. The Governor’s Office should do the same. I will,” Parker said. “Should I be fortunate enough to be elected Governor I would make these necessary cuts on Day One.”
Parker goes on to say, as Paradise Valley mayor, he has cut the town’s spending by 25 percent and the budget for mayor and Town Council by 54 percent. What Parker doesn’t mention is any reference to what those cuts were or how they might translate to the governor’s office. It’s important to note that the Paradise Valley mayor and council combined spent $83,108 last year and will spend $50,175 this year, a far cry from the $7.6 million set aside for the governor’s office this year.
Also, Parker’s math is a little fuzzy. Paradise Valley’s tax revenues are projected to be down by 25 percent from when Parker became mayor in June 2008 ($21.9 million to $16.3 million). But town operations will spend 16.4 percent less ($19.5 million to $16.3 million). The spending-to-revenue gap of nearly 9 percent will be filled with cash-on-hand saved from past tax collections. A similar savings account for the state was drained dry in January.
Parker also doesn’t mention a single position in the governor’s office that he would eliminate or any specific cost savings he would pursue.
Oddly enough, Parker (via Rose) could have made a stronger statement simply by highlighting the budget numbers for the governor’s office, which have risen by nearly $210,000 from last year as explained by the Legislature’s official budget summary. This stands in contrast with the state agencies that Brewer oversees, which have undergone at least three rounds of budget reductions and have been asked to prepare for another 15 to 20 percent in cuts mid-year. Parker’s news release includes a web link to the governor’s office budget, but fails to note the increase in spending.
UPDATE: Brewer’s press secretary, Paul Senseman, told me by email Wednesday morning that the governor’s office needed additional staffing so far this year to comply with tracking and auditing requirements for use of federal stimulus funds. But Senseman added Brewer plans to include mid-year cuts to her office when she sends new budget proposals to the Legislature in the near future.
Posted in: Arizona Legislature • Arizona government • Election issues • Governor • Jan Brewer • Jason Rose • Vernon Parker | 2 Comments »
October 2nd, 2009, 11:53 am by Le Templar
 John Munger of Tucson (left) speaks with Valley media Friday after filing paperwork to campaign for the Republican nomination for governor (Photo by Capitol Media Services). Tucson lawyer John Munger made official this morning what’s been expected for months: he’s running for governor. Unlike the other major player willing to challenge Gov. Jan Brewer so far, Munger became a formal candidate after submitting his paperwork today to the Secretary of State’s Office.
The former chairman of Arizona Republican Party actually has been on the campaign trail since early in this year, when he established an independent expenditure group called Imagine Arizona. That move allowed him to raise money to pay for an issues web site, to write guest columns and to travel around the state speaking to various groups, all without disclosing his election plans until this week. In fact, Munger has got to be the most active candidate for any statewide office (who’s not already holding such an office) up to this point.
Of course, Munger needed that extra groundwork as he has a significant disadvantage: He’s from Tucson, which much of the state views as reliable territory for the Democratic Party despite its sizable pockets of Republican enclaves. However, Munger is well-known among Republicans for his leadership activities which included helping to manage John McCain’s Arizona team during the 2008 presidential election.
While Imagine Arizona was touted as a wide-ranging public policy forum, Munger’s most detailed analysis has been on health care reform. He has articulated a rather robust answer to Democratic plans in Washington that Arizona could pursue in a constructive fashion that certainly should be appealing to conservatives or moderates, but not libertarians.
What Munger lacks is any detailed explanation for how he would handle Arizona’s huge budget problems. That issue is going to dominate next year’s campaign, and one active political commenter has a great point about anyone who wants to run for this office should enter the race with some idea of what they would do.
Posted in: Arizona secretary of state • Election issues • Governor • 2010 election • Jan Brewer • John Munger • Vernon Parker | Post a Comment »
September 29th, 2009, 3:37 pm by Le Templar
Can we start referring to Attorney General Terry Goddard as the early front runner in next year’s governor’s race? A national political poll released today, the second in less than a week, shows Arizona voters favor Goddard over Republican incumbent Jan Brewer and at least one other prominent GOP name. As with the previous survey, the new poll from Rasmussen Reports leaves out a number of potential Republican contenders, so these results are in no way predictive of what will happen next year. Still Democrats are happy to tout Goddard’s standing in these polls as a real trend.
Interestingly, Rasmussen is often cited by Republicans as more reliable than other national polling firms. (Sssh! Don’t tell the GOP that poll founder Scott Rasmussen is a former member of the mainstream media.) So these results should provide more emphasis for Republican insiders to “encourage” Brewer to step aside and let other contenders vie for the 2010 party nomination.
Posted in: Election issues • Governor • 2010 elections • Jan Brewer • Rasmussen Reports • Terry Goddard | 1 Comment »
September 29th, 2009, 10:10 am by Le Templar
Everyone in Arizona knows the state faces an immediate operating budget deficit of nearly $1 billion, and a long-range or “structural” deficit of $3 billion to $4 billion. The situation is so dire that Gov. Jan Brewer has asked state agencies to deliver proposals for scaling back by yet another 15 to 20 percent in mid-year spending cuts. So what should those state agencies be considering in proposals for the next budget year, which are due in the governor’s office by Thursday?
The Arizona Board of Regents has decided to demand more money, a lot more money, as in a 46 percent increase.
At the Board of Regents monthly meeting last week (held in Flagstaff), there was widespread frustration with the state budget situation and how it is affecting the state’s three public universities. The university presidents point out the state hasn’t raised funding to match the record growth in student enrollment, and hasn’t provided enough cash for building construction or major maintenance.
The Board of Regents’ staff had prepared an agenda item that offered to raise state university funding from $1.04 billion to $1.36 billion*, or a 15 percent increase. That alone seems rather lofty.
But a few regents asked the three presidents to hastily come up with a new proposal that reflects the “true cost” of public university education. Arizona State University President Michael Crow clearly was eager to do so. He boldly accused state lawmakers of violating the state constitution because they haven’t raised taxes to give his school more money, as you can see in the video below from the regents’ meeting:
The new budget proposal would raise state funding for universities to $1.459 billion or a $459.1 million increase. For about 30 minutes, the regents debated whether to send both budget choices to the governor’s office, or just the massively more expensive option, as board President Ernest Calderon explained:
The board deadlocked at 5-5 on the motion that would have sent both budget choices to Brewer and lawmakers. Then, the board voted 7-3 to submit the 46 percent increase.
If you watch the whole video, you will see that regent Fred Boice of Tucson is the only person who injects any sort of common sense:
“I think, consciously or subconsciously, we have taken a step into a different world. And that for us to go to (lawmakers) and hand them a bill for $(459) million, knowing full well they can’t balance their current budget, that is a bit inappropriate.”
It’s too bad Boice’s comments came after the last vote.
Most of the discussion on the video suggests the regents are taking a brave, new stance in defense of university education. But, in fact, the universities and board regents have a recent track record of being completely unrealistic in budget matters.
In the spring of 2008, the universities convinced then-Gov. Janet Napolitano to push for $1.4 billion in new building construction, even though the details of the state’s budget woes already were starting to emerge. The universities’ pitch was the construction would be a state economic stimulus, as if that somehow would be popular in this politically conservative state.
The Legislature reluctantly went along with last year’s request, and then delayed the funding because of the growing budget problems.* This year’s proposal will be laughed right out the door.
But this is no laughing matter. Pushing for a showdown with such absurd budget numbers will seriously damage the Board of Regents’ credibility with lawmakers, while creating false hope among the thousands of university employees who are far more likely to be laid off in the coming months.
*NOTE: This post has been updated to reflect the fact that the Legislature approved a version of last year’s university construction stimulus plan, formally known as SPEED. The original post incorrectly said the Legislature rejected it. As updated, the post explains the plan was later delayed because of budget issues. Also, a decimal error in one of the proposed budget numbers has been corrected.
Posted in: Arizona Legislature • Arizona State University • Arizona government • Governor • Arizona Board of Regents • Ernest Calderon • Jan Brewer • Michael Crow • state budget | 2 Comments »
September 23rd, 2009, 3:06 pm by Le Templar
In a sign that Arizona politics continues to attract national interest, a Democratic political pollster based in Raleigh, N.C., is rolling out a series of quick turnaround voter surveys related to 2010 statewide elections. Results released today from Public Policy Polling shows Arizona voters currently favor Democrat and Arizona Attorney General Terry Goddard to be the next governor over Republican incumbent Jan Brewer and two other GOP big names: state Treasurer Dean Martin and former Gov. Fife Symington. (Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker, who is formally announcing his move into the race tonight, wasn’t offered as a choice.)
On Tuesday, the same firm released polling numbers about President Barack Obama and potential Republican challengers in 2012.
Spokesman Tom Jensen said told me his firm is looking at the political climate in various states across the U.S. this fall where there’s expected to be hot races for U.S. senator and governor in 2010. This week happens to be Arizona’s turn. The firm is covering the costs of these polls out of its own pocket, presumably to drum up publicity and to attract individual candidates as clients.
Jensen said the firm will release survey details Thursday about potential Democratic challengers to Sen. John McCain (Janet Napolitano?). On Friday, it will have a closer look at possible Republican primary match-ups.
Public Policy Polling is upfront about its political leanings but insists that it focuses on honest results. The firm doesn’t have much experience in Arizona. Jensen told me its pollsters first sampled state voters in August 2008 to see if Barack Obama had any shot at upsetting McCain in his home state during the presidential election. Seeing that McCain had a lead of 12 percentage points, Public Policy Polling didn’t waste any more time here.
McCain’s biggest threat in the 2010 Senate race would be in the Republican primary and not from any Democrats, especially since Napolitano still will be running Homeland Security. But Democrats are eager about Goddard heading their 2010 ticket and potentially elevating other candidates. So Public Policy Polling is back and ringing up registered voters again.
Posted in: Arizona government • Congress • Election issues • 2010 elections • Dean Martin • Fife Symington • Jan Brewer • Public Policy Polling • Terry Goddard • Vernon Parker | Post a Comment »
September 22nd, 2009, 5:12 pm by Le Templar
 Vernon Parker/submitted photo Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker has been talking for weeks about possibly entering next year’s race for Arizona governor as a Republican. He took a step closer today toward a possible challenge to Gov. Jan Brewer by creating an exploratory committee. This comes a day ahead of a public rally at InterContinental Montelucia Resort and Spa that Parker’s PR expert has been promoting as a “major announcement.” The setting and tone of Parker’s speech is likely to make him look exactly like a candidate running for statewide office, although he might not actually declare just yet to avoid any questions about triggering Arizona’s “resign to run” law. Parker certainly has created a lot of buzz among Republicans that, as a candidate of color, he could match enthusiasm for Barack Obama among independents and moderate voters of both major parties. Parker also could be viewed as an outsider to the state Capitol who would bring some fresh ideas to tackling the state budget mess. I expect Parker to oppose Brewer’s proposed sales tax election, so it will be interesting to see how he would pursue shrinking state government by $3 billion to $4 billion to match current tax revenues.
A huge plus for Parker is he already has picked up the support of Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arapio, although Arpaio supplied the oddest sounding endorsement today in a news release from Parker’s camp:
” ‘Mayor Parker is a stand-up guy with an unbelievable personal story. His candidacy would be very good for our Party and potentially our state,’ said Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, qualifying that he has still not closed the door completely on running for governor himself and is not yet endorsing any candidate for governor if he does not run.”
Posted in: Arizona government • Election issues • Governor • Jan Brewer • Vernon Parker | 1 Comment »
September 10th, 2009, 4:28 pm by Le Templar
 Sandra O'Connor/Capitol Media Services Now that’s she retired from the Supreme Court, Sandra Day O’Connor is starting to relive the days when she was one of Arizona’s top politicians.
O’Connor has started the “O’Connor House Project,” in which she will use the relocated house from she lived in Paradise Valley as a place to talk about public policies ideas. And now she has launched a kitchen think tank made up of dozens of the state’s most powerful and influential people to work on updating the structure of state government. O’Connor held a news conference today to unveil the first set of proposals that her unofficial coalition would like to have adopted by the time the state centennial arrives.
None of the biggest ideas that would require constitutional amendments are really new. Proposals to have an elected lieutenant government have been around since the early 1990s; state voters actually rejected the office in 1994. Gov. Jan Brewer lobbied the Legislature for several years to ask voters again when she was secretary of state. The Tribune Editorial Board has been among a variety of voices suggesting some elected offices — such as state mine inspector — should be eliminated in favor of appointed positions. And many Republican lawmakers desperately want to do away with the 1998 Voter Protection Act, or least to modify it to ease the handcuffs placed by voter-approved initiatives.
But O’Connor can galvanize new attention to these proposals. And she can use her rare status as a living political legend to motivate disparate political forces to work together. Capitol Media Service notes in today’s story that legislative leaders from both parties are part of O’Connor’s kitchen think tank. That makes it more likely such proposals could move through the Legislature in time for the 2010 or 2012 general elections.
Posted in: Arizona Legislature • Arizona government • Arizona secretary of state • Governor • Jan Brewer • Sandra O'Connor • state mining inspector | 1 Comment »
September 8th, 2009, 5:53 pm by Le Templar
Arizona lawmakers and state officials often talk about a constitutional requirement to adopt a balanced budget. That simple statement can be somewhat misleading, because there’s no way to really know if a budget is balanced under the state’s accounting system until the fiscal year is over and there’s a final tally of revenues and expenses.
The state constitution even anticipates a situation in which unpredicted expenses push the state budget out of balance when those tallies come in. Article 9, Section 4 authorizes the Legislature to imposes taxes that cover such potential deficits and also will balance the budget for the next year as well.
A new report from staff for the Joint Legislative Budget Committee makes it clear that the state now is in violation of that provision, and likely a second mandate in Article 9, Section 5, which limits state debt.
The report was prepared in response to Gov. Jan Brewer’s final actions on the 2009-10 budget last week, which included vetoes that bring back a statewide property tax and that restore funding for K-12 education and the Department of Economic Security. In essence, the JBLC report says a 2009-10 budget that was balanced when adopted by the Legislature now is predicted to have $464 million in deficit spending because of Brewer’s vetoes. The Legislature still could act on that problem before June 30 and wipe out the pending deficit.
But the JLBC report also notes that the last fiscal year concluded with a $500 million deficit, despite earlier rounds of funding cuts and other maneuvers. The current budget has no provisions to address that deficit, which also qualifies as debt because the money has been committed and is owed to someone.
Brewer could fix last year’s deficit on her own by directing federal stimulus money to cover it. But that would reduce even further the amount of federal money available in case this year’s budget stays in the red. Don’t even ask about the potential deficits for the next budget on the horizon.
Arizona’s courts have basically ignored the state debt limit for years — allowing state and local governments to enter various borrowing schemes including the sale of bonds and lease-to-purchase of state buildings. My guess is the judges also would treat the ongoing budget deficit as a political problem that can’t be solved with a court ruling.
But it’s still interesting to note that Arizona lawmakers still haven’t accomplished their one official task under the constitution.
Posted in: Arizona Legislature • Arizona government • Congress • Election issues • Governor • Presidential campaign • Arizona Constitution • Jan Brewer • Joint Legislative Budget Committee • state budget | 1 Comment »
September 4th, 2009, 6:17 pm by Le Templar
Gov. Jan Brewer blamed “extremists” from both political parties to justify her budget actions today which included vetoing a bill that would have permanently repealed the state property tax and also included line-item vetoes of budget cuts to K-12 education and the Department of Economic Security.
On the Republican side, Brewer’s insult was primarily aimed at Sens. Pamela Gorman of Anthem, Ron Gould of Lake Havasu City, and Carolyn Allen of Scottsdale, lawmakers who refused to support the governor’s proposed sales tax election even when it was linked to bigger cuts in personal and corporate income taxes a few years later.
But on the Democratic side, Brewer was referring to … well, all of them. Not a single Democratic lawmaker ever broke ranks over the past nine months to vote for the temporary sales tax proposal. That’s 12 Senate Democrats and 25 House Democrats that the governor has labeled as so far out of the mainstream that they don’t reflect any significant collection of interests in Arizona.
In blaming the Democrats, the governor was trying to provide herself some cover in rejecting the property tax repeal, which had been the highest priority of most Republican lawmakers. But Republicans aren’t going to buy her excuses for a minute when Democrats can make statements like this:
“We are adamant in our resistance to giving massive tax cuts to special interests and big business at the expense of public education, and the actions taken by the governor indicate that she feels the same way. So why are we sitting here today with the governor trying to blame us is lost on me,” said Rep. Chad Campbell, D-Phoenix.
“What we are proposing is consistent with what she wants. Where she is receiving resistance is from Republicans in Legislature,” said House Democratic Floor Leader David Lujan.
House Speaker Kirk Adams and Senate President Bob Burns sought to remain diplomatic and measured in their disappointment to vetoes that not only wiped out the property tax repeal, but created a state budget that’s at least $350 million in the red. But House Appropriations Committee chairman John Kavanagh, R-Fountain Hills, said the anger among Republicans would be swift and deep once they understood the full consequences of Brewer’s vetoes.
Kavanagh predicted there’s little chance the Republican majority will support yet another special session before Sept. 30, as Brewer has requested. The bill with the property tax repeal also included other changes to fees and policies for 12 smaller state agencies to help balance the budget. Brewer’s veto will leave the 12 agencies desperately short on cash in the coming months unless the Legislature acts again.
“I can’t conceive of a way that a “clean-up” bill is approved unless it has an amendment to repeal the (property) tax,” Kavanagh said.
Brewer clearly believes she did the right thing for the people of Arizona. But the budget crisis is far from over, and she might find herself running out of allies whenever the Legislature does take the issue up again.
Posted in: Arizona Legislature • Arizona government • Governor • Bob Burns • burning bridges • Chad Campbell • David Lujan • Jan Brewer • John Kavangh • Kirk Adams • state budget | 6 Comments »
August 31st, 2009, 4:54 pm by Le Templar
A statewide telephone poll of likely Arizona voters shows a temporary 1-cent sales tax to help shore up the state budget would have a good chance of passing. But those same voters wouldn’t elect Gov. Jan Brewer to a full term if the 2010 general election were held today.
The poll was commissioned by Mesa real estate magnet Wil Cardon, apparently in a bid to boost Cardon’s own potential candidacy for governor or some other statewide office. (In a news release, Scottsdale political strategist Jason Rose floats state treasurer or chairman of the Arizona Republican Party as other possibilities).
The poll surveyed 602 voters who had cast ballots in the past two statewide primary or general elections. Campaign strategists consider this type of sampling to be more reliable than other polls that sample all Arizonans or all registered voters. You can see the full results here, but I’ll pull out a few highlights:
* Voters narrowly favored passage of the temporary sales tax increase at 49 percent in favor and 43 percent against. That’s within the poll’s margin of error of 4 percent. But toss in the fact that these voters identified funding for K-12 education and resolving state budget as two of the state’s three top pressing concerns, and you can see that a sales tax definitely could pass. Only a handful of those survey were concerned about tax reductions, which has been a top priority for Republicans who control the Legislature.
* Brewer’s political fortunes would seem closely tied to that sales tax proposal. But this sampling of voters found much unhappiness with the governor’s performance. Only 18 percent said they would vote for her in 2010 and 45 percent said they are likely to vote for someone else.
* Who might that someone else be? Well, the poll also asked respondents to consider the potential challengers by job title or political experience (no names were used). “A successful businessman with a young family” got the most picks at 42 percent, which is exactly the description that Cardon would use in a statewide campaign. The next closest were “a former state senate president and secretary of state” (Ken Bennett) at 27 percent, and “an incumbent Attorney General” (Terry Goddard) at 12 percent.
* The poll also found strong support for a flat income tax (although the wording of the question appears slanted to support that proposal’s most favorable arguments) and expanding term limits to require politicians to sit out for two years before they could run for a new office. But the poll respondents were opposed to stripping lawmakers of the pay ($24,000 a year plus expenses) or to going to one legislative session every two years as the Texas Legislature does.
Coming this weekend: Read Austin Hill’s interview with Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker, who is also considering a run for governor as a Republican in 2010. In the Tribune Opinion section.
Posted in: Arizona Legislature • Arizona government • Arizona secretary of state • Congress • Election issues • Governor • Presidential campaign • Jan Brewer • Jason Rose • state budget • Summit Group • Vernon Parker • Wil Cardon | 1 Comment »
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