Former Gov. Jane Dee Hull (left) and current Gov. Jan Brewer

As the state budget debate finally seems to be moving in the final stages, this might be a good time to address a question a lot of everyday Republicans have asked me in recent weeks: What the heck has happened to Gov. Jan Brewer? Throughout her political career, Brewer had been viewed as part of the mainstream GOP which meant advocating for fiscally responsible government with low tax rates. So what is she doing pushing so hard for a temporary tax increases of more than $1 billion, when so many other conservatives are convinced that’s the worst economic move during a recession?

Through her public speeches and in my conversations with people on her staff, Brewer has made it clear she believes legislative budget-writers underestimate the scope of the pending budget shortfalls. She fears the Legislature will not only completely empty the fiscal cupboard to close the budget gap, lawmakers will yank it off the wall. Brewer expects the state will face similar spending shortfalls in 2010 with absolutely no way to fix them unless it slashes huge chunks of funding for education at all levels, far beyond what has been proposed this year.

And education funding continues to be one of the biggest political problems for the Republican Party. Despite sincere efforts by many groups to prove otherwise, many average Arizonans are convinced the state didn’t (at least until recently) spend nearly enough in this area.

And Brewer wants to win a statewide election next year, which means she must overcome a serious challenge from the opposing party. Most lawmakers merely have to survive the state primary in their legislative district to guarantee re-election. The rule of thumb is state candidates angle for the extreme to win a primary (conservative for Republicans, liberal for Democrats) but must aim toward the political middle to win a contested general election.

Brewer also is likely to be thinking about one of her GOP predecessors, Jane Dee Hull, and the 2000 election that raised the state sales tax for education funding. Hull’s biggest opposition came from other Republicans who derided the plan as the biggest single tax increase in state history. But Hull, who couldn’t run for re-election herself, understood a deep public resentment toward the lack of education funding imperiled the future of Republican power and its accomplishments in other areas (such as the expansion of school choice options).

Political polls are all over the place on whether Arizonans would support higher taxes now to avoid deeper budget cuts. Brewer probably reads some hopeful signs in events such as the Gilbert Town Council’s move just last night to raise local taxes, and Mesa voters approving the city’s first property tax in 50 years.

Now, I have said for a couple of months I thought if the Legislature approves a budget that honestly is balanced without a tax increase, Brewer would swallow a bitter pill and reluctantly sign it instead of getting into a veto fight. That’s going to be harder for the governor to do now, after claiming Monday that the Legislature should be trying to eliminate a $4 billion deficit, instead of only $3 billion as leading lawmakers have been claiming all session.

The Legislature could pass a budget plan by Thursday, but Republican leaders don’t have the votes to override a Brewer veto. So the governor’s tax proposals still will be very much a factor in the coming weeks.